Sunny & Dry to Start Week, Stormy & Wet to End Week

WAKA Action 8 News,

Posted: Mar 27, 2016 3:36 PM CDT

Happy Easter from Your Weather Authority Weather Team!

For today, as expected showers and storms have been impacting the state through out the day. A cold front is approaching from the west, and that will be pushing through the state overnight and will finally be clearing the clouds and rain out of here. The rain is expected to continue through the evening hours before winding down after midnight.

For Monday, expect morning clouds and perhaps a few lingering showers. These are expected to be few and far between, but the hi-res NAM (North America Mesoscale) Forecast System does show some very spotty showers around 6AM in the morning, as seen below.

As drier air moves in, the rain will be out of here and the clouds will give way to afternoon sun. It will be a nice day of weather for the most part as highs in the mid-70s are expected. Tuesday morning will start off chilly with lows in the mid-40s, but highs by the afternoon will be in the upper 70s. Southerly flow takes over Wednesday, temperatures will stay warm, and rain is likely for portions of Alabama by Wednesday afternoon as a warm front lifts north across the state.

Several rounds of rain and storms look likely late Wednesday into Friday. Several upper-level impulses or shortwaves will be ejecting out of the Southern Plains and these will be providing ample uplift. Southerly flow will allow for a moisture-rich air mass to be in place across the state. As these impulses work through the region, showers and storms are expected. Some model data suggest instability will be in place, and we could have to deal with some strong to severe storms during this time frame as well. Severe weather or not, we are expecting a lot of rainfall as model data output suggest 2-4 inches of rain will be possible, and some locations could receive more. We can see that below on the QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) graphic below.

This is forecast model output and not an official forecast, but this gives you and idea of what we could see later this week, specifically Wednesday-Friday. Depending on how fast it falls, some areas of isolated flooding could develop. Still a lot of model disagreement on timing, placement, and intensity of the impulses that will impact the state, but of course we will be watching the model trends the next several days and will keep you informed and up-to-date on any new developments.

WEEKEND SNEAK PEEK: The wet weather looks to push out of here just in time for the weekend. A trough over the East means with that drier weather, comes cooler weather as well. As of now, both Saturday and Sunday look to be partly cloudy, with afternoon highs near 70°F, while overnight lows will be in the 40s. We may even have to drop temperatures a bit as some of the latest model output is coming in a little cooler for next weekend.