Lower Rain Chances this Week
SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON: More mugginess today as we are watching the weak front trying to move south through the state. This boundary will continue to sink southward today, but it is slowing down. This will be the focal point for the showers and storms we will see out there today and this evening. Showers and storms today will produce brief heavy downpours, gusty winds, and lots of lightning.
HOW FAR SOUTH WILL FRONT MAKE IT?: The upper-level support for the front is sliding more east than south, and that will cause the front to stall across South/Central Alabama. It is August in Alabama and getting a front to push through the state is very hard. North of the front, expect dry conditions, with humid and scattered showers and storms south of the front.
WEAKENING FIONA: Latest update had the center of Tropical Depression Fiona was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 58.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph. A continued west-northwestward motion with a gradual
decrease in forward speed is forecast later today and on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Fiona could become a post-tropical remnant low in the next day or two. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
WATCHING THE TROPICS: Still two areas of unsettled weather to watch the next several days and we are likely to see a storm or two in the week ahead. Feature one is a tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower activity. Dry air near this system is expected to inhibit significant development during the next few days while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development late this week when the system is expected to move near Hispaniola and the southeastern and central Bahamas. Feature two is thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization in association with a tropical wave and a large area of low pressure located almost 300 miles south of the southern Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
LOWER RAIN CHANCES: On Wednesday expect a northeast to easterly flow across the Carolinas westward into Alabama. A significant amount of dry air should be drawn southward into the state. This pattern will continue on Thursday with deep-layer easterly flow across the forecast area. Much drier air is expected to spread westward and greatly reduce our rain chances while providing relief from our typical humidity. A similar theme will continue for Friday and into the weekend, though the airmass may modify and become somewhat more conducive for convection.
Have a Marvelous Monday!
Ryan
