Hot and Mainly Dry Through the Weekend
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: The upper ridge will hold across Alabama and the Deep South through the weekend, meaning little day to day change in our weather. Each day will feature plenty of sunshine as well as hot and humid conditions, but also each day we will see a few widely isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Rain chances are rather low, but not zero, and the chance of any one spot seeing a shower or storm each day is about one in five. Our flow will be out of the east and that slightly drier air is the reason we will limit our rain chances. The slightly drier will allow for hot afternoons and we should see mid 90s and certain locations could see upper 90s Friday, but highs will be mostly in the 93-97 degree range through Sunday.
HURRICANE GASTON: The latest update had the center of Hurricane Gaston located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 3.3 West. Gaston is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast Friday night. Data from a NASA/NOAA Global Hawk unmanned aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure from the aircraft data is 988mb (29.18 inches).
INTEREST IN INVEST 99L: Due to the possible threat to the U.S. Coast, and likely to be Hermine in the coming days. The latest update out early this morning shows a broad area of low pressure located about 200 miles northwest of Puerto Rico is producing gale-force winds over water to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. However, satellite images indicate that the shower activity remains disorganized, and the low continues to lack a well-defined center. Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development, this system could still become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions have the potential to become more conducive for development over the weekend when the system is near the central or northwestern Bahamas. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system later this morning.
Development of this feature will be a slow go of it and until a distinct center of circulations develops, the models are going to struggle with intensity and track forecasts. Also, the interaction with the large mountains on the island of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola could certainly impact this system further. Other issues are the amounts of shear and dry air affecting the system. Additionally, the strength of the ridge currently in control of weather could steer the system west or allow it to head up the East Coast. So many uncertainties with this system but there is still plenty of time to watch. Check the blog for frequent updates in the coming days and especially this weekend.
FOR NEXT WEEK: Overall the ridge will remain in place so for the most part, standard late August weather with highs in the 90s and the daily threat of passing storms, however, the weather next week will depend on the tropical weather situation.
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Have a yourself a Superb Thursday!
Ryan
