Hot, Breezy, and Mainly Dry
THE LAST DAYS OF AUGUST: The upper ridge is holding across the Deep South, and we continue to see little change in our day to day weather. This will continue through the rest of August, which is tomorrow. That means we are going to see more sun than clouds, with hot temperatures as highs will be in the mid 90s. Dew points vary across the state with low 70s in the west, and lower 60s in the east. This somewhat drier air means only isolated afternoon and evening showers/storms are expected through tomorrow Wednesday. With the tightening pressure gradient between and high pressure in the Ohio Valley and Tropical Depression 9, our winds will breezy at times today out of the ENE at 10-20 mph, with higher gusts.
HELLO SEPTEMBER: For the second half of the week, an upper trough will pass north of Alabama, and will beat down the ridge some. This trough will allow drier air to drop in from the north. Showers look very unlikely with the change, and the dew points will come down by Friday with lower humidity during the day, and slightly cooler nights. The high Thursday will be in the low 90s, and some spots just might hold below 90 degrees Friday with that air mass change. This upper-level trough is why tropical depression 9 will have no direct impact on Alabama.
HURRICANE GASTON: Continues to spin in the Central Atlantic, and thankfully, will not be impacting land. The latest update from the NHC has the center of Hurricane Gaston was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 54.0 West. Gaston is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph. A general motion toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8: The center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 75.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph. A turn toward the north is expected later today, and a turn toward the northeast is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina this afternoon or this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today. The minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9: The one we in Alabama are paying attention too as it is the closest, but it is not expected to impact us. Latest update had the center of Tropical Depression Nine located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 86.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph. A slow west-northwestward motion is expected today. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will continue to move slowly away from western Cuba, and move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the next 48 hours. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) based on dropsonde data from the NASA Global Hawk aircraft. The system remains very disorganized this afternoon and though it should reach tropical storm strength, it is not expected to become a hurricane. The NHC track has the center turning northeast over the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday, and making landfall near the Big Bend of Florida, then cutting across North Florida Thursday. Not too important to focus on the center since this will, most likely, still be pretty disorganized. The main issue with the system is rain for the Florida Peninsula, and dangerous surf/rip tides. Most of the rain over the Florida Peninsula will fall today through Thursday. The rain won’t be continuous, however, and the sun will be out at times. The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the southern Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys through Wednesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches could occur over the Keys and coastal areas of southern Florida.
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC: A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located over the far eastern Atlantic between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for some gradual development of this system late this week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
LABOR DAY WEEKEND: With the trough delivering drier air, and a tropical system east of us, which will allow additional dry air to be pulled south, we are forecasting mainly dry and sunny days, with fair nights Saturday through Monday. While highs will be close to 90 degrees, nights will be cooler thanks to the dry air. Lows should be in the low to mid 60s early each morning. The dry pattern continues well into next week.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Ryan
