Mainly Sunny and Hot
Plenty of sunshine and hot temperatures across Alabama this afternoon. Radar will remain fairly quiet again as we are not expecting much in the way of showers and storms today due to dry air flowing into the state from the northeast around an area of high pressure over Kentucky, and the counter-clockwise circulation of Julia off the Southeast Coast. Temperatures will be hot with lower to mid 90s this afternoon. Though it is hot, it is not overly oppressive this afternoon as humidity levels will be lower. Tomorrow will be a near repeat of today, but we will introduce a few more afternoon showers and storms, but these will be few and far between.
TROPICAL TRIO: Heart of hurricane season in the Atlantic, and have three systems: Ian, Julia, and T.D. #12, which is expected to become Karl the next few days. A lot to talk about…
IAN: Another fish storm for sure, but still a system that could impact some of the shipping lanes in the Central Atlantic. Latest update had the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 52.4 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph. A turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed are expected today, followed by a further increase in forward speed tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ian is expected to remain a powerful cyclone while it loses tropical characteristics by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
JULIA: Just off shore of the Georgia/South Carolina border, and will meander there for a few days. The center of Tropical Depression Julia was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 79.6 West. The depression is drifting toward the east near 2 mph. A slow and erratic motion is expected over the next couple of days, and the track forecast keeps Julia meandering offshore of the Georgia and southern South Carolina coastlines into Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
#12: Is the area of unsettled weather in the far East Atlantic we have been watching for the past couple of days. The center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 29.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph. A westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will continue to move away from the Cabo Verde Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). This system is too far out to even think about possible impact on land, as it is over a week away from the U.S.
THE FINAL WEEKEND OF SUMMER: With the ridge a little weaker, and a surface front north of the state, the coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a little higher, but overall the risk of rain will be lower than forecast earlier this week. Still, we will have a few showers and storms around both days, but they will be widely scattered. Expect a mix of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday with afternoon highs remaining close to 90 degrees.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: The chance of a storm Friday night during the high school games is now lower. Still some risk of a shower or storm during the first half of the games, but they will be pretty isolated, meaning most stadiums will be dry. Temperatures will fall through the 80s.
Auburn will host Texas A&M Saturday evening at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6:30p CT kickoff)… a shower or thunderstorm is possible during the game, but not especially likely. Temperatures will fall from near 84 degrees at kickoff, into the upper 70s by the final whistle.
Alabama travels to Oxford to play Ole Miss Saturday (2:30p CT kickoff). The sky will be mostly cloudy, and a passing shower or storm is possible during the game. Temperatures will hover in the mid to upper 80s.
ROUNDING OUT SUMMER: Officially summer will end on Thursday September 22, as the autumnal equinox occurs at 9:21 AM. Little change in the forecast for much of next week, as the upper ridge holds, and the late summer pattern just won’t change much. That means temperatures will be staying a bit above average with lower 90s expected through much of South/Central Alabama. Average high for Montgomery the last few days of summer is 88°, so not expecting average of below average temperatures the next 7-10 days. Also with the ridge in place, we see no really widespread, beneficial rain, which is very much needed across the state. Expect isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day.
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Have a great day!
Ryan
