Another Very Warm Day, Strong Storms Ahead
FOR TODAY: We are going to see more clouds than sun, and there will be a few passing showers from time to time. Nothing too heavy, but overall, likely just a mainly gray day for most of us. Temperatures will be into the mid and upper 70s again.
STORMY TIMES AHEAD: Unfortunately, with it feeling like spring, the weather is going to start acting like spring, and threat for strong to severe storms is back in the forecast. Two rounds of unsettled weather will impact Alabama later this week and then over the weekend.
ROUND ONE: The ridge over the Southeast is beginning to loosen its grip on the region and our pattern will become more active. As we roll into Thursday, an upper trough will approach from the west, and widespread rain and thunderstorms will overspread the state heading into the afternoon and Thursday night. Now, for this first system, the SPC has defined a “marginal risk” of severe storms for much of West and Central Alabama. This first system is the one of least concern, but still enough of a threat to mention it. I really think with this first round, the main concern will be locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches. We could certainly see some minor flooding issues overnight Thursday. The rain will end early on Friday, from west to east across the state, and for the most part, Friday should be mainly dry with highs once again returning to the lower 70s.
ROUND TWO: As we roll into the weekend, our next storm system starts to take shape, and this system looks to be quite robust, and is the one that gives us the most concern as there is a decent chance for Alabama to see strong to severe thunderstorms, Saturday, Saturday night, and Sunday. Saturday should feature more clouds than sun, and with a very strong southerly flow, it will be breezy, with few scattered showers possible at anytime through the day. Highs Saturday should once again make their way into the 70s. On Sunday, a vigorous area of low pressure will eject out of Texas and lift northeast towards Central Tennessee, which is an ideal track for the threat of severe storms in Alabama. That track puts Alabama in the warm sector of the system. A warm, moist, unstable air mass will move in over the state ahead of the low and instability values will be impressive for January, with surface based CAPE values over 1,500 j/kg during the day. Combined with a steep lapse rate and strong wind fields, this certainly suggests the potential for severe storms. At this time, the greatest risk for severe storms will be over the southern half of the state and the SPC has the southern half of the state highlighted in the threat for severe storms Saturday and Sunday. There is still a lot uncertainly on placement and exact timing, and being five days out, it is simply too early to speculate, but is something to watch. More very beneficial rain is expected over the weekend, and an additional 1-3 inches will be possible as well.
INTO NEXT WEEK: A cold core upper-level low will cross Alabama Monday and we are going see colder temperatures, clouds, and lingering light rain Monday. Highs Monday will be back around the 60 degree mark. Tuesday, sunshine will return and temperatures climb back into the lower 60s. However, another cold front will move through late next week, and that will allow winter to return to Alabama. By the following weekend, (January 27-28) cold air looks to be the norm for Alabama with lows falling back around freezing, and highs in the 50s. Still lots of winter left!!!
Be sure to stay connected throughout the day and night follow me on twitter: @Ryan_Stinnett and Like my Facebook Fan Page “Meteorologist Ryan Stinnett.”
Have a Wonderful Wednesday!
Ryan
