Multiple Rounds of Severe Weather Possible this Weekend
FOR FRIDAY: Today will be relatively calm day for the state as we are going to be in between systems. There could be a few isolated showers, but most of the day should be mainly dry. It will be mainly cloudy, and with an intensifying southerly flow, highs once again return to the upper 70s. Now heading into tomorrow night and through the weekend, concern is growing across portions of Alabama for a multi-round severe weather event, with all modes of severe weather expected, and that includes large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.
WHAT WE KNOW: A complex severe weather pattern is setting up for Alabama, as a deep upper trough with strong wind fields will approach from the west. This will allow for a vigorous surface low to develop west of Alabama and lift northeast towards Central Tennessee which places Alabama in the warm sector of the storm system. With Alabama in this warm sector, a very moist, unstable air mass develops across Alabama. We are going to see high instability values, deep layer shear, and steep lapse rates, which will promote strong and severe storms in Alabama late tonight through Sunday morning.
ROUND ONE: All the models I have seen show a very strong low-level jet developing across the Central Gulf Coast tomorrow night, and that will allow showers and storms to develop late tonight, and explode in coverage and intensity across South Mississippi and Southwest Alabama tonight. For this reason, the SPC has Southwest Alabama in the standard “slight risk”, of severe storms with a “marginal risk” for much of the rest of the state. These storms will race all towards the northeast through the state, and will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and even a few tornadoes. This first round of severe storms is expected to develop after midnight tonight, and last through the pre-dawn, and morning hours Saturday.
ROUND TWO: This round could develop as the air becomes very unstable Saturday afternoon. Some storms are expected through the afternoon, these will be more isolated in nature, and this second round will depend on how much the atmosphere recovers from the storms earlier in the day. The best dynamics will be west of the state, and the greatest instability to the south, but we could certainly see a few scattered severe storms through the afternoon and evening hours, and yes all modes of severe weather will be possible during this time frame as well.
ROUND THREE: The best-upper level dynamics will approach the area late Saturday night and into Sunday. This is when we are expecting the final round of storms to move across Alabama. This final round should have enough instability to work with, and with very favorable dynamics, which will be able to overcome any lacking instability, we should see strong and severe storms affect Alabama. For Saturday and into Sunday, the SPC has most of Alabama in the standard “slight risk” of severe storms, while an “enhanced risk” as in effect for West Alabama.
We want to urge folks to remain weather aware this weekend, as this system has the potential to be a high impact event for the state. Make sure you have multiple reliable sources to receive severe weather notifications in the event a warning is issued for your location. With some of the severe weather occurring during the overnight hours, it extremely important that you are able to receive the alerts.
INTO NEXT WEEK: Calmer weather to start the week, as Monday will be cooler and cloudy, with a few lingering light showers. Highs Monday will be back in the upper 50s for Central Alabama. Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry with highs in the 60s. Thursday a cold front is expected to move into Alabama and that will allow for colder air to return to Alabama to end the week. Highs will fall back into the 50s, and lows will head back towards freezing. It still looks as though the final days of January and into February will be cold.
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Have a great day and stay weather aware this weekend!
Ryan
