Record Warmth Today, Cooler Weekend Weather
FINAL FEBRUARY FRIDAY: Record highs are likely across much of Alabama today, with upper 70s and lower 80s expected. The record high for February 24 for Montgomery is 80° set back in 1890, and I really think we are going to surpass that as we are forecasting 82° this afternoon. This afternoon, we will have a mix of sun and clouds, but late in the day we are expecting clouds to increase as a cold front approaches the state, but our Friday will be dry in Alabama.
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY: Not here of course, but for our friends to the north across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. On the maps, a deep surface low with good upper support will move toward the Great Lakes the next 24 hours. Heading through the day, blizzard conditions are ongoing over parts of Iowa and Minnesota in the cold air sector of the storm. And, south and east of the surface low, in the warm sector, severe storms are likely today and tonight. The SPC has much Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Kentucky in an “enhanced risk” for severe storms today, while down into Tennessee, and far Northeast Alabama, there is a “marginal risk. ” Supercells and the threat of tornadoes are expected up north, however, nothing like that in Alabama as the best dynamics stay well north of the state. What we are expecting in Alabama is a band of showers and storms to move through the state late tonight and early tomorrow morning, night ahead of the trailing cold front. Rain and some thunder is possible, but this should be a thin line of storms and will not produce much rain with rainfall totals below one-quarter inch for most of us. As the front exits rapidly early Saturday, cooler weather arrives for the weekend.
SOLAR WIND ADVISORY: Earth is about to enter a stream of solar wind flowing from a hole in the sun’s atmosphere. NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Feb. 23rd as the solar wind speed quickens to 550 km/s or more. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Thursday and Friday nights.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Behind the cold front, expect dry and colder weekend weather. Both Saturday and Sunday, very nice weather is expected, and the sky will be mostly sunny both days. Saturday will be breezy as brisk northwest winds advect the colder air into the state, afternoon highs Saturday are expected to be in the mid 60s. Sunday morning will be pretty chilly with a low in the 30s, with some patchy frost possible. Sunday afternoon highs will be in the mid 60s, with mainly sunny conditions.
HEADING TOWARDS MARCH: The month of February looks to end on a wet and stormy note. Sunday, a low pressure will move out of the southern Plains, and will approach Alabama on Monday. This low will bring showers and storms to the state that day, and the weather looks pretty unsettled for the first half of the week, with a chance of rain and thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday as well. The track of the low Monday would be favorable for the threat of severe weather in Alabama, but still too many other uncertainties this far out to call for us to include that in the forecast. Nevertheless, we certainly could see a few strong thunderstorms with more heavy, beneficial rain possible for the first half of next week. These three days, rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are likely. Then, cooler, drier air returns later in the week Thursday and Friday.
Have an incredible Friday and a wonderful weekend!!!
Ryan
