Warm, Unsettled Pattern; Strong Storms Wednesday
RAIN AND STORMS RETURN TODAY: Showers and thunderstorms developed during the overnight and pre-dawn hours west of the state, this activity will move into the western parts of the area around the 4AM-6AM time frame. These showers and storms will move into the central parts of the area by 6AM-8AM, and into the eastern parts by 7AM-9AM. Good news is that the air at the surface will be stable due to lower dewpoints, but strong forcing aloft could produce some elevated storms. By the mid to late afternoon hours, most of the activity will have shifted to the south and east, and will decrease in intensity. The main rain shield should be out of the area by the evening, and lows will fall into the lower 50s to the lower 60s across the area under generally cloudy sky.
VERY WARM TOMORROW: A warm front begins to lift northward through the area during the morning hours on Tuesday, there will be a small risk for a few scattered. Subsidence aloft along with the lack of a trigger mechanism keeps these risks very low. Drier air will start to work in from the south and will be in place for the rest of Central Alabama. Afternoon highs will warm into the mid 70s to the lower 80s across the area, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY: Even though the primary forcing will remain north of the area on Wednesday, the risk for severe weather is there for mainly the northern half of the state. At this point, it looks that all modes of severe weather could be possible: damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes. The air mass will be juicy and ripe for a few supercells to develop during the day, ahead of the main line that will move through later during the afternoon and evening. The SPC continues to have much of the northern half of the state in a 30% probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of a point. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 70s to the lower 80s. We’ll have a better look at the situation later today, but we believe that Wednesday will be a day to have your trusted sources of receiving severe weather alerts handy during the entire day.
DRY AND COOLER TO END THE WEEK: After the front moves through Central Alabama, dry conditions will move into the area for the remainder of the week and weekend. Skies will start off sunny for Thursday and Friday, but a few clouds roll in for Saturday, and mostly cloudy skies can be expected on Sunday. Highs will start off in the upper 50s to the lower 60s to start, but will slowly warm into the mid to upper 60s by Sunday.
Have a Magnificent Monday!
Ryan
