Strong Storms Later Today and Tonight

ACTIVE THURSDAY: Our next severe weather threat arrives today as a deep surface low, supported by a strong upper trough, will be over Missouri this afternoon. Here in Alabama and the rest of the Southeast, a warm, moist, unstable airmass will be in place, and that will provide fuel for the showers and storms that are expected.

In the latest day two convective outlook, the SPC maintains a “enhanced risk” (level 3 out of 5) for the northwest part of Alabama, while the standard “slight risk” (level 2 out of 5) covers the rest of Alabama; for today through tonight, meaning all of Alabama is under some risk for severe weather.

THREATS: Within the “enhanced risk” over Northwest Alabama, tornadoes are possible along with large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is lower over the rest of the state, in the “slight” risk area, but once again, do not focus on a specific lines, there is a threat for everyone.

TIMING: It looks as though we may have two area of rain and storms. The first round of showers and storms looks to move into the state during the late morning hours. These could be strong, but these are not expected to be the main storms, and these could certainly impact the second round of storms later in the day. Latest model data suggest that the atmosphere will be able to recover for the second, more powerful main event that is expected to develop during the afternoon hours to our west and head towards Alabama late in the afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours.

For now, it looks like the best chances for strong to severe storms will be in the northwestern part of the state, which is closer to the better dynamics. The more limited threat will be for the rest of the state, but once again, all of Alabama is highlighted in some sort of severe weather risk for today and tonight, so we all must be weather aware.

Along with the threat of severe storms, we can expect a lot of lightning and very heavy rainfall as totals of around one inch are expected, but no flooding issues are expected.

FRIDAY: The storm system looks to move through faster and we should see the rain and storms move out of Alabama overnight. A few morning clouds likely, but expect a clearing sky, with highs in the 70s.

WONDERFUL WEEKEND WEATHER: No change in the forecast for the weekend as a splendid spring weekend of weather is ahead. Both Saturday and Sunday are forecast to be very nice, with lower humidity, and plenty of sunshine. Highs will be in the 80s and lows will be in the 50s.

THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL: Storms are back in the forecast just in time for the new work week. The pattern remains active across the state, which is what you’d expect for early April in Alabama. During the day Sunday, an area of low pressure takes shape across the Southern Plains. This low will head towards the Southeast, and storms will impact Alabama on Monday and some strong to severe storms are possible. That system exits by Tuesday, while yet another storm system and threat for strong storms will move through the area on Thursday. Highs next week should be in 80s, with lows around 60°.

Stay weather aware today!
Ryan