Dry Mornings, Stormy Afternoons
TYPICAL TUESDAY IN AUGUST: Hot and humid today with highs in the lower and mid 90s, and heat index values will be over 100° at times. The only heat relief will come from scattered afternoon showers and storms. Storms will be capable of producing lots of lightning, and once again, tropical downpours as a very tropical air mass is in place across the state with dew points well into the 70s. We will need to monitor the rainfall rates through the afternoon as localized flash flooding will be our main concern. The good new is that the risk for severe weather is very low today, but with summertime thunderstorms, you need to “expect the unexpected.” A few storms could be strong with gusty winds being the main threat. Lows will be in the lower to mid-70s. Also, there will likely be areas of fog overnight.
GERT GETTING STRONGER: Now our second hurricane of the season: At 500 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Gert was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 72.5 West. Gert is moving toward the north near 12 mph. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph with higher gusts. Gert has the opportunity to gather some strength later today or Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
HARVEY IS THAT YOU?: It is becoming that time of year where every feature coming off the African coast needs to be monitored and today we have a couple of disorganized areas of unsettled weather are embedded within an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Only slow development is anticipated during the next day or two, but conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for
tropical cyclone formation by later in the week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. Over the next five days, the NHC gives this feature a 60% of developing into a tropical cyclone, and that means we very well may have Harvey later this week.
REST OF THIS WEEK: Little change in the air mass over the state, and we are going to maintain the threat for scattered showers and storms on a daily basis. When it is not raining, expect a mix of sun and clouds with highs mostly in the lower to mid 90s. Of course each day, any storm will have intense tropical downpours, which could cause flash flooding.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: More of the same is expected into next weekend. We are still not seeing any big pattern shift across the U.S. which of course is not unusual for August. Both Saturday and Sunday are expected to have a partly sunny sky with randomly placed showers and storms mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon highs will be around the 90 degree mark, with lows in the lower and mid 70s.
ONE WEEK UNTIL ECLIPSE: Next Monday, August 21, all of North America will be treated to an eclipse of the sun. Anyone within the path of totality can see one of nature’s most awe-inspiring sights – a total solar eclipse. This path, where the moon will completely cover the sun and the sun’s tenuous atmosphere – the corona – can be seen, will stretch from Lincoln Beach, Oregon to Charleston, South Carolina. Observers outside this path here in Alabama will still see a partial solar eclipse where the moon covers part of the sun’s disk.
The coverage will be 90 percent in Montgomery, 93 percent Birmingham, 81 percent in Mobile, and 97 percent in Huntsville. It begins around 12:00 noon, peaks at 1:32PM, and ends at 2:58PM. The big questions involves the weather. For now, it looks like a fairly routine day. Meaning, we will have a field of scattered or broken cumulus clouds, with potential for a few scattered showers during the eclipse. But, at this point we don’t see anything to suggest that we will be dealing with a total overcast. Bottom line is that the eclipse should be visible for a decent part of Alabama; we will fine tune the forecast as it gets closer.
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Ryan
