Hot and Humid Days, Scattered Afternoon Storms
You know the drill by now, as it is the same song and dance every afternoon this time of year; dry mornings, then the afternoons are highlighted by an active radar with pockets of convection that can produce lots of lightning and those intense tropical downpours. With the surplus of rain across the area it will not take much to see some pockets of isolated flash flooding. Where it does not rain, expect a mix of sun and clouds with hot and humid conditions; afternoon highs in the lower and mid 90s and the heat index climbing above 100° in spots.
HURRICANE GERT: At 500 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Gert was located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 68.4 West. Gert is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph. An even faster east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible today. After that time, Gert is expected to weaken, and the cyclone is forecast to become an extratropical low by Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).
ACTIVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC: Three features we are watching in the coming days well out in the Atlantic. Feature one: An elongated area of low pressure located more than a thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday. Environmental conditions appear somewhat supportive of tropical cyclone formation over the next few days but should become less favorable once the system moves into the Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 5 days…40 percent.
Feature two: A second area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is also producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some slow development of this system over the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Formation chance through 5 days…20 percent.
Feature three: A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. Conditions appear conducive for some development after that time while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
We are heading into the heart of the season, so we expect the Atlantic to be busy. Next three names on the list of names are Harvey, Irma, and Jose.
THROUGH FRIDAY: Little change in the air mass over the state, but we do note that in the upper-levels of the atmosphere we are going to see somewhat warmer temperatures, and this should bring down our rain chances to the 20-40% range each day, but still mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. The days will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs mostly in the 80s to lower 90s. Of course each day, any storm could produce tropical downpours, which could cause isolated flash flooding.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: More of the same is expected into the weekend. We are still not seeing any big pattern shift across the U.S. which of course is not unusual for August. Both Saturday and Sunday are expected to have a partly sunny sky with randomly placed showers and storms mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will range from the upper 80s to the lower 90s.
FIVE DAYS UNTIL ECLIPSE: A persistence forecast is best as for now as it still looks like a fairly routine summer day. We will have a field of scattered or broken cumulus clouds, with potential for a few scattered showers during the eclipse. But, at this point we don’t see anything to suggest that we will be dealing with a total overcast. Bottom line is that the eclipse should be visible for a decent part of Alabama.
Have great day!
Ryan
