Dry Through Weekend, Watching Irma
OH SO NICE!: Amazing weather today all across Alabama as it sure looks and feels like fall out there. After the chilly start in the 50s, we will all warm into 80s this afternoon. Very few if any clouds and a light north breeze makes this “chamber of commerce weather.” If you like this weather, which most of us do, there is little change in the forecast through the weekend. Temperatures will moderate some, but will remain below average and with very little humidity the next several days, it will be delightful. Through Sunday, expect sunny, comfortable days, and refreshingly cool nights. Highs in the 80s are forecast, while lows will be mostly in the 60s.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: A perfect night for high school football games tonight; a clear sky with temperatures falling into the 60s.
Alabama will host Fresno State in Tuscaloosa Saturday afternoon (2:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be sunny with temperatures falling from near 83 degrees at kickoff to near 80 by the end of the game.
Auburn is on the road; they will take on Clemson in South Carolina Saturday evening (6:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be clear with temperatures falling from 77 degrees at kickoff to near 70 by the final whistle. We should note the weather will be dry Sunday for those traveling back to Alabama; any impact from Hurricane Irma in South Carolina will come late Monday into Tuesday.
NEXT WEEK: A westward shift in the inland track of Irma now means we are going to deal with breezy and wet conditions Monday and Tuesday in Alabama. Good news is we are going to be on the west side of the storm, which is the good side and severe weather will not be an issue. The rest of next week looks to feature dry and pleasant weather with low humidity. Highs looks to be in the lower to mid 80s, while lows will remain in those 60s.
HURRICANE IRMA: At 500 AM EDT, the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 73.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph, and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with a decrease in forward speed. A turn toward the northwest is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should continue to move westward away from the Turks and Caicos Islands and toward the southeastern Bahamas this morning. The core of the hurricane will then move between the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next day or two, and be near the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4 hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).
Latest forecast track from the NHC has Irma continuing to the west-northwest through tomorrow and then begins to make the turn to the north on Saturday. Hurricane watches and storm surge watches have been issued for South Florida and the official forecast track shows Irma making landfall on the Gold Coast of South Florida between Miami and Palm Beach Sunday morning. After this, the track takes it up the peninsula of Florida, and despite the exact locations of the center of circulation, the entire peninsula of Florida will feel the impacts of the storm. Continuing along the official track, Irma moves further over Georgia according to the cone of uncertainty on the NHC forecast. We have to remember to pay attention to the cone, not the line on the official forecast. That cone represents the average error in NHC forecast positions at each time out into the future. This means the center could be anywhere inside that cone of uncertainty.
HURRICANE JOSE: At 500 AM AST, the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 55.3 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph. A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Jose is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph with higher gusts. Jose is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is possible later today or tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.25 inches).
HURRICANE KATIA: At 400 AM CDT, the center of Hurricane Katia was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 95.4 West. Katia is moving toward the west-southwest near 3 mph and this general motion is expected to continue until the system makes landfall within the hurricane warning area by early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and Katia could be near major hurricane strength at landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). No threat to the U.S.
Have a great day!
Ryan
