Irma’s Impacts Being Felt Today
HURRICANE IRMA: At 500 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 82.6 West. Irma is moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near the northwestern coast of the Florida Peninsula this morning, cross the eastern Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia this afternoon, and move through southwestern Georgia and eastern Alabama tonight and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Irma is
expected to weaken to a tropical storm this morning and to a tropical depression by Tuesday afternoon. Irma has a very large wind field. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles mainly to the west of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles. The Mayport Naval Station near Jacksonville, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 68 mph and a wind gust of 87 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).
ALABAMA IMPACTS: Today, tonight, and tomorrow will be the active times for Alabama. We will remain on the “good” west side of Irma, and there is no tornado risk anywhere in the state. The tornado threat is to the east on the “bad” east side of the circulation over Georgia and the Carolinas. But, even on the “good side” it will become very windy and the highest winds will be over the eastern third of the state and our highest winds will come during the overnight hours Monday. Winds will be sustained at 25-45 mph with higher gusts perhaps as high as 60 mph and the winds are going to be the greatest threat from Irma in Alabama. This will almost certainly result in some downed trees and power lines.
The Tropical Storm Warning is in effect has been expanded across eastern portions of the state, roughly along and east of Interstate 65 and includes the counties of Barbour, Blount, Bullock, Calhoun, Chambers, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, Coffee, Coosa, Dale, Elmore, Etowah, Geneva, Henry, Houston, Lee, Macon, Montgomery, Pike, Randolph, Russell, St. Clair, Talladega, and Tallapoosa.
Of course we are going to deal with rain as well, and at this time it still appears most locations in Central Alabama will average 1-4 inches of rain, but flooding is not expected. The farther east you are (closer to Georgia) the greater your impacts from the storm. To the west, the winds across West Alabama will be lighter, in the 15-30 mph range, with rain amounts generally of one inch or less. No rain at all is expected in the broad area from Demopolis to Mobile, across Southwest Alabama.
REST OF THE WEEK: Wednesday and Thursday Irma begins to dissipate over the Mid-South, but we should remain mainly cloudy with scattered showers both days and highs in the 80s. It will be improving weather as with winds will be decreasing and the rain thinning out. By Friday, the remnants of Irma will be lifting off to the northeast, and we are going to start to see more sun and warmer temperatures with lower and upper 80s back in the forecast.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The weekend looks dry and warm. We are forecasting more sun than clouds with highs in the mid 80s both Saturday and Sunday, with lows in the lower 60s.
HURRICANE JOSE: At 500 AM AST, the center of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 68.6 West. Jose is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph, and a turn toward the northeast is expected by tonight, with a reduction in forward speed. Jose is then expected to move slowly toward the east and southeast Tuesday into Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). Still too early to rule out an impact on the East Coast of the U.S. as Jose is expected to do a loop as it gets stuck in the western Atlantic as steering currents collapse. Can’t yet rule a threat to U.S. in next 10-12 days.
LEE LATER THIS WEEK: A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected to move west-northwestward for the next two days and then turn northward over the central Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…40 percent.
Stay safe and have a great day!
Ryan
