Noon Update: Tropical Depression 16 Develops
A strong ridge in place across the eastern half of the U.S. keeps the weather in Alabama, dry, very warm, and mainly clear. Temperatures will be running about five degrees above average with highs in the mid to upper 80s forecast. Nights will be fair and comfortable with lows ranging from the lower to mid 60s.
GULF TROPICAL MISCHIEF?: Remember hurricane season continues through the end of November and the NHC is monitoring two areas of concern. A trough of low pressure located over central Cuba and extending northward into the Straits of Florida is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the southern peninsula of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Although significant development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, brief squalls will likely produce locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds over portions of the Bahamas and the southern Florida peninsula during the next couple of days. Formation chance through 5 days…10 percent.
A feature of greater concern: Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The large disturbance should move slowly northwestward across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this system over the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over Formation chance through 5 days…80 percent. Next name on the list is Nate, and this feature could impact our forecast, especially late in the weekend as the global models strongly suggest some kind of tropical low moving north through the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Too much uncertainly as of now, but there is the potential for impact on Alabama’s weather.
BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR WEEKEND: With the potential of a system in the Gulf, we are going to increase in our rain chances for the weekend, especially on Sunday. For now, it appears Saturday will see increasing clouds and the chance for a few scattered showers and warm with highs in the 80s. On Sunday, moisture associated with the potential tropical low approaching the coast would mean showers and storms move into the state Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday, with the potential for heavy rainfall and breezy conditions. Once again, lots of uncertainty with this as things will change in the coming days.
INTO NEXT WEEK: After the chance of rain early in the week, cooler air should follow with highs dropping into the 70s and lows in the 50s. And much of next week looks dry and quiet…standard October weather for Alabama.
Have a great day!
Ryan
