All Eyes Watching the Tropics
MORE OF THE SAME: Little change the next two days as a strong ridge remains in place across the eastern half of the U.S. Our weather stays dry, very warm, and mainly clear. Temperatures will be running about 5-8 degrees above average with highs in the mid to upper 80s forecast. Nights will be fair and comfortable with lows ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
WAITING ON NATE: At 500 AM EDT, the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 83.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph, and this motion is expected to continue this morning. A north- northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast to begin later today and continue through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras later today and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. The center is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan peninsula late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. The depression could strengthen to a tropical storm before it moves inland over northeastern Nicaragua today. Strengthening is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
FORECAST DISCUSSION: This is important because this feature is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico and impact the Gulf Coast on Sunday. There remains a lot of uncertainty and confidence in the forecast track and intensity remains fairly low.
For now, NHC is forecasting Nate to be a category one hurricane at the time of landfall Sunday, and the early morning track has landfall somewhere along the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf Coast Sunday for now, based on the current NHC forecast, highest impact would seem to be Biloxi eastward to Mobile, Gulf Shores, Destin, and Panama City Beach. It is very important to note that this forecast can, and probably will change over the next few days.
Remember, the “bad” side of the system is east of the circulation center. This is where most of the storm surge/flooding issues as well as tornado threat will be found as Nate approaches the coast and moves inland. As of now, the current forecast track from NHC, much of Alabama will be on the “bad” east side of the circulation. On the “good” west side, no storm surge issues, although there will be some wind and rain, but no tornado threat. Again, this could and will likely change in the coming days.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: With a tropical system in the Gulf, we are going to increase our rain chances for the weekend. Saturday will feature increasing clouds and warm temperatures with highs in the 80s; rain is expected to be increasing late in the day and through the overnight hours. Sunday, the track of Nate will determine our weather, but it looks as though rain and wind will be expected, and yes with the current track, there will be a threat for tornadoes.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games Friday night, the sky should be clear with temperatures falling from around 80 degrees at kickoff, through the 70s during the game.
Auburn hosts Ole Miss Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium (11:00a CT kickoff)… the sky will be partly sunny with temperatures rising from near 78 degrees at kickoff into the low 80s by the final whistle. A few widely scattered showers are possible.
Alabama is on the road; they will take on the Texas A&M Aggies Saturday in College Station, Texas Saturday evening (6:15p CT kickoff). The sky will be clear with temperatures falling from near 88 degrees at kickoff, to near 80 by the end of the game.
INTO NEXT WEEK: The winds and rain from Nate will impact our forecast to start the week, but by late Tuesday a cold front swings into the state and kicks Nate out of here. Behind the front, much cooler and drier air will flow into the state. It will be feeling like fall across all of Alabama with highs dropping into the 70s and lows in the 50s.
Have a great day!
Ryan
