Noon Update: Are the Tropics Waking Up?

ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON: While much of the area has a mostly clear to partly cloudy sky. Clouds will build throughout the heating of the day and the weather will continue to be unsettled today with a good chance of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and into the evening hours; afternoon highs will top out in the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Rain chances will be in the 50-60% range. For this evening and into the late night hours, rain chances will diminish somewhat as we lose the heating of the day, but we can see a few showers or storms continue through midnight. All activity should come to an end well before sunrise. Lows will be in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS: For high school games tonight, the weather will be warm and humid with the risk of a shower or thunderstorm, mainly during the first half. Some games could very well be dealing with a lightning delay; temperatures will be mostly in the upper 70s.

USA BRIEF: Showers and thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and large hail will be possible over portions of the central and northern Plains through Saturday. Heavy rainfall could also lead to localized flooding concerns. Out west, warm and very dry conditions will lead to another round of critical fire weather to close out the week.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The upper ridge begins to rebuild, so we expect a trend toward fewer afternoon showers and thunderstorms, especially by Sunday. We are forecasting a mix of sun and clouds both days with highs in the lower 90s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Saturday, Auburn takes on Washington in Atlanta in Mercedes Benz Stadium (2:30p CT kickoff). Outside the domed stadium, afternoon temperatures will be in the 87-90 degree range with the risk of a shower or thunderstorm.

Then, Saturday evening, Alabama will take on Louisville in Orlando (7:00p CT kickoff). The weather will be humid, and a shower or thunderstorm is possible during the game. Kickoff temperature near 80, falling into the upper 70s by the final whistle.

NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge means a hot first week of September; highs will be close to 90 degrees every afternoon with partly sunny days and mostly fair nights. Afternoon showers and storms are certainly possible, but they will be widely scattered. Of course, some tropical mischief in the Gulf could impact the forecast for midweek, stay tuned!!!

FLORENCE FORMING?: At 500 AM AST, the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 21.4 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph, and this motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected to continue for the next three to four days. On the forecast track, disturbance is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands as a tropical storm later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a tropical cyclone later today. Formation chance…high…90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

Also, A tropical wave is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers from Hispaniola eastward to the Leeward Islands and the adjacent waters. This activity is forecast to spread westward to west-northwestward, but strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent any significant development of this system during the next several days. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for some development when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Regardless of development, this system could produce enhanced rainfall across
portions of Hispaniola, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Florida into early next week. Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

Have a great Labor Day Weekend!!!
Ryan