Nice Fall Days Before Strong Storms Thursday

OUTSTANDING OCTOBER WEATHER: Delightful fall weather continues today with a sunny, dry days and warm temperatures; afternoon highs should be in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

USA BRIEF: A front arriving into the Upper Midwest and a digging jet stream over the West will set the stage for a large precipitation event Tuesday through Thursday. Heavy snow will be likely for the entire stretch of Rockies Tuesday into Wednesday morning, especially the CO Rockies. Heavy to excessive rain w/ the threat for severe t-storms will be expansive starting late Tuesday from TX to the Ohio Valley.

HALLOWEEN: For Wednesday, the sky will be partly sunny, and the day will be mild with a high in the lower 80s. Moisture levels will begin to rise, however, and we will mention some risk of widely scattered showers during the afternoon and evening hours. For the trick-or-treaters, the rain won’t be widespread, and we don’t expect any thunder. But, a shower can’t be ruled out, especially along and west of I-65 through 9:00 p.m.

STORMY START TO NOVEMBER: All eyes are on Thursday as a dynamic weather system and strong cold front will bring widespread rain and thunderstorms to Alabama late Wednesday night and Thursday. For now, it looks like the main window for this will come from midnight Wednesday night until 3:00 p.m. Thursday with rain amounts of around one inch are likely.

There will be certainly enough dynamic support for strong to severe thunderstorms, due to the track of the low, but the uncertainty of the threat involves thermodynamics. Models are suggesting that there will be little surface based instability Thursday morning as the storms arrive, which could greatly limit severe potential for the northern half of the state. But, if the system slows down and instability values are greater than forecast, the forecast wind profiles suggest we could see a low end tornado threat. Still a lot too watch in the coming days and we will have a better understanding of how this unfolds the next 48 hours. We note, the SPC has defined all of Alabama under a risk for severe weather on Thursday, with much of South/Central Alabama highlighted in a “slight” risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe storms Thursday.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday will be cooler with a clearing sky; the high will be in the low to mid 60s. Then, we are forecasting a picture perfect fall weekend with sunny days and fair nights Saturday and Sunday. Highs will be in the 60s, and lows mostly in the 40s. Colder pockets will see a low in the 30s.

TROPICAL UPDATE: Hurricane Oscar continues to move north through the Central Atlantic and is no threat to land. The rest of the basin is quiet with no development expected through the week ahead.

Have a great day!
Ryan