Active Weather Pattern
Today will be a transitional period between systems. Not much forcing available today, and will forecast low rain chances. A warm front will push northward this afternoon and bring better instability and lift for the southern half of the state, where some scattered showers will develop.
To our north, an upper level impulse will pass to the north of Alabama tonight. A strong band of forcing and wind shear will proceed the upper trof axis. However, the better forcing will stay north of Alabama as the southern portion of the trof axis flattens out towards sunrise Tuesday. Models show a decaying line of thunderstorms tracking southeast into north Alabama later tonight and into early Tuesday morning as the better lift pulls away from the convective line. However, there will be ingredients in place across northwest Alabama for the production of severe storms; the severe threat will decrease as the line approaches the I-59 corridor. For the rest of of the state, some strong storms are expected early on Tuesday.
REST OF WEEK: Cooler and drier air will briefly move in behind a cold front on Tuesday night, but deep-layer westerly flow will cause the front to stall near the Gulf Coast. A trough digging into the Plains, and impulses ejecting around the base of the trough, will likely cause the stalled front to return northward as a warm front on Wednesday. Some waffling of the front may occur Wednesday night and Thursday as well. Small-scale shortwaves and isentropic lift will be associated with increasing rain chances for Wednesday through Friday, with multiple rounds of showers and possibly some thunderstorm activity. Dewpoints in the upper 60s will be associated with at least modest CAPE values, and a few strong storms cannot be ruled out in the Wednesday through Friday period. However, the overall setup does not appear particularly favorable for severe storms. A strong frontal passage is expected on Friday, bringing much cooler and drier weather to the region for the weekend.
Have a great day!
Ryan
