Very Mild Temperatures and Strong Storms Expected

FOR FRIDAY: We are forecasting a mainly cloudy day with passing rain shower possible, but most locations will remain dry. Temperatures will rise into the lower and mid 70s as the warming trend continues.

To our west, strong to severe storms will form as a fairly dynamic system ejects out of the Plains and lifts towards the Midwest. The SPC has an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) defined for parts of Arkansas and adjacent states; there is a “slight risk” (level 2/5) over to I-55 in Mississippi, and a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) into Southwest Alabama. Within these areas, the threat for severe weather is expected Friday afternoon and Friday night. These storms will be making their way towards Alabama late tomorrow night and into Saturday.

STORMY SATURDAY: The SPC has defined the standard “slight risk” (level 2/5) from Birmingham south to the Gulf Coast, with a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) north of Birmingham to the Tennessee Valley.

It looks like the main threat for storms will come during the morning hours and into the early afternoon across much of Alabama, but the better thermodynamic environment for severe storms will come after the main dynamic support has lifted away. Also, several models continue to show a complex of thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast early Saturday that could also decrease the severe weather threat by cutting off the unstable air from moving north from the Gulf.

Nevertheless, we will be dealing with rain and storms on Saturday and some thunderstorms could produce gusty winds and some hail; there also remains a low end tornado threat. But, the overall severe weather threat looks low for Alabama and we are not expecting a major severe weather event, but there is enough of a threat that we will need to stay weather aware. We will keep a close eye on model trends as the system gets closer as things can and likely will change.

Despite the rain and storms, Saturday will be a mild day with a high up in the mid 70s; rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are expected.

REST OF WEEKEND: Sunday looks mainly dry with a few lingering showers possible for South Alabama, and the weather stays unseasonably mild as we rise into the 70-75 degree range again on Sunday with a mix off sun and clouds. Clouds will increase late in the day, and more rain should move into the state from the south as we head into Sunday night.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Saturday’s SEC title game between Alabama and Georgia (3:00p CT kickoff) will be played in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta (in the dome); for those walking to the game rain and thunderstorms are likely in Atlanta with temperatures in the 60s. The rain will end Saturday evening.

NEXT WEEK: Rain is likely Monday morning, but models now are trending drier for Monday afternoon and Monday night. The high Monday will be in the 65-70 degree range, and rain amounts should be under 1/2″. The rest of the week looks dry and much colder with highs in the 50s on most days and lows in the 30s.

Have a great day!
Ryan