Exclusive Analysis: Who Will Replace Roby in the Second District?

Alabama News Network Political Analyst Steve Flowers is sharing his thoughts on the 2020 race for Alabama’s Second Congressional District. Current Congresswoman Martha Roby has announced that she won’t seek a sixth term.

Flowers says potential candidates don’t have a lot of time to make up their mind on whether to run. The primary is March 3. That could be a challenge for someone to organize a campaign and raise money.

Flowers says someone who has $500,000 to $1 million to spend would have an advantage over those who don’t have access to quick campaign cash. He says political action committees typically don’t get involved in a primary for an open seat. A PAC would start investing once a nominee is chosen.

Map of Alabama’s Second Congressional District – From U.S. Rep. Martha Roby’s website

The Second Congressional District includes Autauga and Elmore counties, plus part of Montgomery, then stretches to cover much of southeast Alabama, from Andalusia to the Wiregrass area of Dothan.  Flowers says most of the votes can be found in Autauga and Elmore counties, so a candidate from there would have a name-identification advantage, provided they had the money to mount a campaign.

Several legislators could be interested in making a move from the Alabama State House to Capitol Hill. But Flowers says most lawmakers simply aren’t known outside their legislative district. He says it’s possible that a candidate who is in the 2020 Senate race might decide to switch to this Congressional race, provided that they live in the district.