Strong Storms and Flooding Possible
STRONG STORMS & HEAVY RAIN: Much of our Wednesday will be cloudy with increasing rain and storms through the day as an approaching cold front and developing low pressure will lift north across the area which along with an unstable air mass, will enhance the wind fields across the state and could produce some severe storms across the state late tonight and into Thursday.
PLACEMENT: The SPC maintains a “slight risk” (level 2/5) for severe storms which includes most of Alabama, in areas south of a the Tennessee state line, and as far east as Gadsden, Tuskegee, and Eufaula . A “marginal risk” (level 1/5) covers the rest of East Alabama. This is through 6AM Thursday morning.
After 6AM Thursday morning, the risk area and categories change and shift to the east with the severe weather threat.
TIMING: The main window for strong to severe thunderstorms will come from roughly 4PM this afternoon through 10AM Thursday. The core threat will be tonight with the risk of severe storms lingering well past midnight.
THREATS: Stronger storms will be capable of producing small hail, damaging straight line winds, and a few tornadoes. There is some chance an organized thunderstorm complex over South Alabama and along the Gulf Coast will cut off the better inflow into the state, reducing the severe weather threat, but it remains to be seen if that happens.
RAIN: Rain amounts between now and tomorrow evening will be in the 2 to 4 inch range for most of the state; some localized flooding issues are possible with the heavier thunderstorms tonight and a flash flood watch is in effect for much of Central and East Alabama. Always remember to TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN if you encounter flood waters.
Be sure you have a good way of hearing severe weather warnings tonight if they are needed. Know your safe place, and have helmets for everyone there. And, if you live in a mobile home, understand you can’t stay there during a tornado warning. Know where you are going, and the quickest way to get there.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The front will push through the area on Thursday, with any storm threat confined to eastern portions of the state. Thursday will be a much cooler and we should see lingering rain at times across the state. Temperatures will fall from the 60s into the the 50s. Friday will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the upper 50s.
WEEKEND WEATHER: A wave of energy will skirt across the state late Saturday and we will need to mention that Saturday should feature more clouds than sun with scattered showers late in the day and Saturday night. Highs Saturday will be in the mid 60s. Sunday should be a nice day with ample sunshine along with a high in the upper 60s.
NEXT WEEK: Monday will be dry and nice with highs in the 60s. By Tuesday, our next chance of rain arrives and much of next week looks to be a bit active across the state. Each day looks to feature more clouds than sun, with occasional rain. It looks to remain mild for February with temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s, which are ten to fifteen degrees above average. Looking long range, for the middle part and latter half of the month, we still see no signs of any bitterly cold, Arctic air for Alabama.
Stay weather aware!
Ryan
