Terrific Tuesday; Storm Threat Increasing Thursday

Sunshine in full supply today with highs in the lower 80s expected. Tonight will be clear and cool lower to mid 50s. Tomorrow will be another rain-free day with a good supply of sunshine, but clouds will increase late in the day, with highs again around 80°.

HERE WE GO AGAIN: April in Alabama means every few days we will be dealing with the threat of strong and possibly severe storms, and our next storm threat arrives early Thursday morning in Alabama. During the day Wednesday to our west, another storm system will move out of the Plains and bring rain and thunderstorms to the state early Thursday morning. As of this morning, the SPC in their Day 2 outlook, which runs through Thursday morning at 7AM, has a part of far West Alabama in a “slight risk” (level 2/5) for severe storms, with a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) defined as almost Interstate 65. Again, this will be for the pre-dawn hours Thursday.

In the day 3 outlook, which covers the rest of Thursday, the SPC has much of Alabama highlighted in an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) for severe weather as another active day of weather is expected for Alabama.

This threat set-up is more typical of what we expect in Alabama this time of year. A low pressure will be lifting northeast across the Mid-South, providing sufficient low level shear, in the upper-levels the trough will remain positively tilted which isn’t ideal for severe weather, but still provides enough upper-level dynamics. At the surface, a warm front will move north through the state, and push well into North Alabama by Thursday afternoon, so again all ingredients will be in place, but a lot will be determined by the small scale features which set-up the day of the event, and we still have a couple of days to prepare and plan for this event. This is April in Alabama, the heart of our severe weather season, so this is not unusual. No two events are the same, so don’t compare this event to past events. This event is completely different, but it carries its own significant threat and everyone will need to be prepared. It only takes one storm to makes this a very bad day for the state.

For now, we will have a 12 hour window from 5AM-5PM Thursday for the threat of severe weather, with the core threat like 10AM-5PM, when all modes of severe weather will be possible including damaging winds up to 70 mph, large hail to gold ball size, and some tornadoes. Rain amounts of 1-3 inches look likely, and some flooding issues can’t be ruled out with the saturated soil conditions we have now in Alabama.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Most of the day Friday will be dry, but another fast moving system will bring a chance of rain and thunderstorms to the state late Friday night. Too early to know if this will be another event with severe thunderstorm potential, but for now, it doesn’t to be an issue due to limited moisture return. The rain will push out of the state by Saturday afternoon, followed by a clearing sky. Sunday looks dry and pleasant with ample sunshine along with a high in the upper 70s.

NEXT WEEK: For now Monday and Tuesday look dry, followed by chance of rain and thunderstorms by Wednesday or Thursday and yes, another system with the potential for severe weather.

Have a great day!
Ryan