Very Nice Start and End to Week; Midweek Storm Threat

THE START THE WEEK: High pressure has built in across the Southeast and that will provide quiet and calm weather for today and tomorrow. Expect sunny warm days, with upper 70s today, followed by lower to mid 80s tomorrow. Tonight will be another cool one, we should upper 40s and lower 50s tomorrow morning. Late tomorrow, clouds will begin to increase ahead of our next storm system.

STORMS MIDWEEK: Rain and storms return to Alabama early Wednesday ahead of a cold front. This is a very dynamic storm system, but the models still show the surface low and bettered dynamics well to the north of Alabama in the Great Lakes, but it looks like we may have to deal with another round of strong and severe storms in Alabama on Wednesday. The SPC has most of Alabama under a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for severe storms on Wednesday, and this will likely be upgraded to at least a “slight risk” (level 2/5) in future forecasts.

A line of storms will be ongoing Wednesday morning across the Southeast ahead of a surface cold front. Depending on the location and intensity of the morning storms, there appears to be a window for atmospheric destabilization across parts of the Southeast ahead of the cold front Wednesday afternoon, especially for areas of southern Mississippi and South/Central Alabama and strengthening shear through the day would support organized storms. The main uncertainty for severe weather for now is the amount of destabilization that may occur ahead of the front. Regardless, at least an isolated severe risk for mainly large hail and strong to locally damaging winds appears plausible. The tornado threat is very low, but not zero. Nevertheless, many of us should see nice soaking as well, as rainfall amounts will be around one inch, with higher amounts to the north, and lower amounts to the south.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: High pressure builds in behind the midweek front, and terrific spring weather looks to round out April and continue into May. Expect sunny days, with 70s and 80s for highs, lows will be in the 50s.

WEEKEND SNEAK PEEK: High pressure remains firmly in control of our weather for the first weekend in May. The days look generally sunny with highs in the mid 80s, and lows in the 60s. The next big rainmaker doesn’t look to arrive in Alabama until well into next week, perhaps on Wednesday. Certainly seems like the weather pattern may be switching to a calmer late spring setup.

Our spring severe weather season extends well into May, but April is the core month for it in Alabama. As we head through the month of May, the main storm track gradually transitions farther north and west into the Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley. Let’s hope this happens quickly this year, and we can start to get a break from storms in Alabama.

Have a great day!
Ryan