Warm Days with Pop-Up Afternoon Showers

An upper low deepens over the Southeast the few days as it is cutoff from the upper-level wind flow (jet stream), which means it is going nowhere fast, and looks to meander about the region through at least midweek.

We have a saying in weather…upper-level low, weatherperson’s woe…as they can make the forecast tricky at times and somewhat unpredictable. For the next several days this feature will bring cloudy periods to the state, mild temperatures, and scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis. The storms will be rather random, and there is no way of knowing when and where they will develop, but just know they will be out there at anytime. However, the greatest coverage will be during the peak heating hours of the day (afternoon/evening hours). Organized severe storms are not expected, but some of the more intense showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty winds and small hail thanks to the cold air aloft associated with the upper low. Afternoon highs will be in the low 80s, if your location sees more sunshine you could see mid-80s.

ARTHUR PUSHING OUT TO SEA: At 500 AM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 70.6 West. Arthur is moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph. A turn toward the east is expected this morning. Arthur is then forecast to slow down and turn toward the south in another day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Arthur is forecast to become post-tropical later today. Slight strengthening is possible this morning, but a general weakening trend is expected to begin by Wednesday. Arthur is expected to dissipate by the end of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The upper low will weaken and begin to lift northward later in the week, but moisture levels will remain high and the air mass will be muggy Thursday and Friday…and likely the rest of summer. With higher humidity levels, expect a mix of sun and clouds both days, with widely scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs return to the upper 80s 80s.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: The air mass will not change much and the long holiday weekend looks pretty routine for late May in Alabama. We are forecasting very warm and humid weather Saturday, Sunday, and Monday; expect partly sunny days and mostly fair nights. Scattered showers and storms will remain possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, and highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

INTO NEXT WEEK: Looks like summer is setting up across Alabama and the Deep South. The upper ridge will build, meaning we will see warmer temperatures with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. We will see a decrease in showers and thunderstorms, going from scattered to more isolated in nature on a daily basis.

Social distance and have terrific Tuesday!
Ryan