Widespread Rain and Storms Today; Waiting on Isaias

THE REST OF THIS WEEK: Deep, tropical moisture in place across the state with a broad upper trough, means the forecast will include numerous showers and thunderstorms across Alabama. While most of them will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t rule out some rain during the late night and early morning hours as well.

The sky will feature more clouds than sun, and highs the next few days will hold in the mid to upper 80s. With high precipitable water values, showers and storms that form should be very efficient rain producers as well with some locations the next few days possibly receiving several inches of rain. Also, don’t forget about the lightning threat with any storms this time of year.

THE FIRST WEEKEND OF AUGUST: For Saturday and Sunday, expect continued very humid conditions, with a mix of sun and clouds both days, and of course the continued threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will be a few degrees below average for this time of year, mainly in the low 90s.

FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST: We are going to stick with a persistence forecast for now as much of next week looks pretty classic, for summer weather in Alabama. Partly sunny days with scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will remain in the low 90s for much of the week, with still no signs of excessive heat for Alabama.

IN THE TROPICS: We now have Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 that the NHC is issuing advisories for and this feature expected to become “Isaias” a some point in the days ahead. At 500 AM AST, the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 61.3 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph, and this general motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will move through the southern Leeward Islands during the next few hours, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, and near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast today, with weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction, and some restrengthening possible late week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form later today. Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles from the center. Antigua recently reported a wind gust of 47 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data and surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

Have a whimsical Wednesday and wear a mask!
Ryan