Quiet Start to Week; All Eyes on the Gulf

The comfortable fall weather continues all week as humidity levels remain low. Temperatures will moderate some, but still it will be truly delightful. Expect sunny warm days with highs heading mainly in the 80s much of the week. Nights will be clear and nice, with lows moderating from the 50s into the 60s by the end of the week. By late in the week, we will begin to feel the affects of what will likely become Hurricane Delta in the coming days…

First off, the latest on Tropical Storm Gamma had the center of Tropical Storm Gamma located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 87.5 West. Gamma is drifting toward the west-southwest near 2 mph. Gamma is forecast to gradually turn toward the southwest later today, and continue to move slowly in that direction through mid-week.

On the forecast track, the center of Gamma will continue to meander offshore of the northern Yucatan Peninsula early this morning, and pass near or just offshore of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late today and on Tuesday. Gamma could possibly move inland along the northwest coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

Now to what will become Delta later today…The center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Six was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 77.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph, and this general motion should continue for the next day or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass just south of Jamaica through this morning, move near or over the Cayman Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The tropical cyclone is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands later today, and be a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

As the system tracks in the Gulf it will be gaining strength…Moisture associated with tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico will be slowly drawn northward on Wednesday. For now it appears the northern edge of this moisture and the chance for showers may stay over South Alabama.

As the system emerges from the Yucatan Channel on Wednesday, likely as a hurricane. The storm will move quickly northwest as it interacts with the remnants of Gamma. Delta is expected to be located in the Northwest Gulf on Thursday as it interacts with a shortwave trough over Texas. This will open the door for a surge of moisture northward into Alabama. We can expected rain to spread northward on Thursday and become widespread Thursday night into Friday as Delta makes its approach to the Gulf Coast.

Current projections put our forecast area on the eastern side of the storm, where breezy conditions and an abundance of rainfall should occur. Delta will continue to move inland on Saturday, with the bulk of the rain probably taking place in the morning. Total rainfall amounts for Thursday through Saturday are currently projected to range from 3 to 5 inches across the entire forecast area. With this occurring over a relatively long duration, widespread flooding is not a huge concern at this time. However, we`ll need to watch the potential for a narrow corridor of higher amounts near Delta`s center if it passes through our area. The potential for tornadoes appears to be very low at this time due to Delta`s interaction with a residual cooler and drier airmass across the Deep South. This will keep much of our area in the cool sector of the storm until a dry slot moves in from the southwest on Saturday. Delta should eject eastward away from our area Saturday night and Sunday, leading to a much drier period.

A lot can and will change in the coming days, so stay tuned for updates through out the week.

Ryan