Hurricane Delta Intensifying, Heading Towards Gulf of Mexico

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES: The great fall weather continues today and tomorrow, with a mix of sun and clouds and highs today in the low 80s, followed by mid and upper 80s tomorrow, however by the end of the week, expect big changes in our weather as we are going to have some Hurricane Delta.

HURRICANE DELTA: Latest update has Hurricane Delta as a category 2 hurricane. The center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 81.3 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph. A faster northwestward motion is expected to begin later today through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands this morning, and move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday and over the Gulf of Mexico through Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches).

Models are in good agreement on this system, and the latest NHC track brings the system over the northeastern Yucutan peninsula, from there, it moves northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico, crossing the West/Central Gulf, as a major hurricane, turning north as it gets picked up by an approaching shortwave trough, steering the system towards the Southeast Louisiana coast. On this forecast, it should make landfall on the Southeast Louisiana coast late Friday night or early Saturday. Then rapidly move towards the northeast across Mississippi and Alabama Saturday.

Concerning the intensity forecast, NHC expects Delta to maintain major hurricane intensity until it begins to approach the coast, but weakening is expected before landfall due to likely cold upwelling of shallow cool shelf waters offshore the southwest coast of Louisiana and Mississippi. Delta most likely will be a strong category two hurricane at the time of landfall, but again, this could change.

COASTAL IMPACT: It is a little early for specific impact forecasts for any given point along the Gulf Coast. But, rain becomes likely along the Alabama and Northwest Florida coasts Thursday, with breezy and wet conditions continuing Friday and Saturday. The rain should end along the coast during the day Saturday, and for now Sunday looks mostly dry with only isolated showers.

A few isolated, brief waterspouts or tornadoes will be possible near the coast Thursday night through Saturday, and rain amounts of 3-6 inches are likely from Thursday through Saturday morning.

For now the highest risk of wind and storm surge damage seems to be across Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi, but again, this could change.

FOR INLAND ALABAMA: Clouds will increase Thursday with rain likely over South Alabama during the day, then spreading north through Thursday night and Friday as Hurricane Delta approaches Southeast Louisiana. As the system track across the area Saturday, we should have rainy and very breezy conditions.

Rain amounts will vary greatly across the state, but 1-5 inches look likely across Alabama with the heavier totals closer to the Mississippi state line; for now major flash flooding is not expected since the ground is not saturated, but of course this remains a fluid situation and changes are expected.

Of course with any land-falling system, there is a threat for small, spin-up tornadoes east of the center of circulations, which is where Alabama will be, so we are going to have to stay weather aware through the day Saturday.

With so many changes expected in the weather through the weekend, make sure you are staying informed and up to date with the latest weather information. Don’t forget to download the Alabama News Network Weather App.

Have a terrific Tuesday!!!
Ryan