Very Warm Wednesday; Delta Heading into Gulf

Most of Alabama will remain dry today and tomorrow with more sun than clouds; highs should reach the mid and upper 80s today and tomorrow due to sinking air around Delta. Of course, Delta is our focus the rest of this week, as this major hurricane is heading into the Gulf, with impacts on Alabama late this week.

HURRICANE DELTA: Most recent update from the NHC has the center of Hurricane Delta was located by satellite images and Cuban radar data near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 86.4 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is likely Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few hours. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula during the next few hours. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday, and Delta could become a category 4 hurricane again by late Thursday. Weakening is expected as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).

Concerning the intensity forecast, NHC expects Delta to maintain major hurricane intensity as it approaches the Louisiana coast, but weakening is expected before landfall due to likely cold upwelling of shallow cool shelf waters offshore the southwest coast of Louisiana and the increasing shear ahead of the approaching trough, but still Delta will be a very dangerous storms and will most likely will be a category three hurricane at the time of landfall.

FOR ALABAMA FORECAST: On Thursday, showers are possible over the southern half of the state, but the rest of the day will remain dry and warm with highs again in the mid to upper 80s. Through the day on Friday, clouds will increase across the state, with rain becoming likely statewide. Heading into Friday night, as Delta makes landfall somewhere in Southeast Louisiana, the more widespread wind and rain will overspread the state continuing through the day on Saturday, and into early Sunday as the remnant circulation moves through Mississippi and North Alabama.

WIND & RAIN: Saturday looks to be our breeziest day with sustained winds of 15-25 mph possible, and gusts as highs as 35 mph in spots. Rainfall forecast from WPC suggests rain amounts of around 0.5-3 inches across the state, with the heaviest amounts west of Alabama closer to the center of circulation.

TORNADOES: With any land falling tropical system, especially east of the center of circulation, which is where Alabama will find itself with Delta, you do have the risk for a couple of brief, isolated tornadoes, especially Saturday due to greater instability, so we will have to remain weather aware on Saturday.

The rain will end from west to east early Sunday; the sky should become partly sunny Sunday afternoon. Highs over the weekend will be close to 80 degrees.

REMEMBER: When you are dealing with a tropical system, forecast changes are likely. Be sure and see the latest updates in coming days; if you are working with old information, you are working with bad information.

FOOTBALL FORECAST: Many of the high school games have been moved to Thursday night; the weather will be dry over the northern half of the state with temperatures falling through the 70s. Showers are likely Friday night with temperatures in the 70s.

Saturday, Auburn hosts Arkansas (3:00p CT kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Rain is likely during the game, with winds of 15-25 mph. Temperatures will be in the 75-80 degree range, and there could be a low end risk of brief tornado over East Alabama Saturday afternoon.

Alabama will take on Ole Miss on the road at Oxford (5:00p CT kickoff). The weather looks windy and wet due to the remnant circulation of Delta; winds could gust as high as 35-45 mph during the game. Rain is likely; temperatures will be in the 70s.

NEXT WEEK: Monday looks warm and dry with a high in the low to mid 80s; cooler air filters into the state during the mid-week period. For now most of the week looks rain-free;

Have a whimsical Wednesday!
Ryan