Very Mild Days Ahead; Potential Severe Weather Thursday Night

MILD FINAL DAYS OF 2020: We are seeing more sun than clouds today, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Looking for increasing clouds Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night ahead of our next storm system which causes some concern for the potential of strong and severe storms. Highs Wednesday will surge well into the 70s for most locations.

STRONG STORMS TO END 2020: A dynamic storm system will approach Alabama Thursday with the dual threat of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain/flooding Thursday and Thursday night and now into Friday as the system has slowed down a bit. A developing low along the Texas Gulf Coast will lift north across the Mississippi Valley and looks to become negatively tilted, pulling a warm front north and in its wake, a warm air mass will surge north into Alabama. While instability is forecast to be modest across Alabama Thursday and Friday, strong wind profiles should offset this limitation. This is a typical cool season severe weather set-up for Alabama with limited instability by strong wind profiles.

In their Day 3 convective outlook, the SPC already has much of Central and West Alabama highlighted in a threat for severe storms for late Thursday, Thursday night, and through the early morning hours of Friday.

The main severe weather potential will be in the form isolated tornadoes and a wind damage threat with thunderstorm clusters that organize. Along with the severe weather threat, a soaking rain event is in store fore Alabama with rain amounts 2-3″ common for much of the state, while some amounts of 4 inches are not out of the question.

We are starting to get a better understanding of the timing and potential threats with this event, but realize it remains too early to be specific about the timing and magnitude of the threat. For now, the main window for the potential threat of strong and severe storms will be from 5PM Thursday through 5AM Friday. Again, expect changes in the coming days.

Consider reviewing your severe weather plan, and be sure you will be in a position to hear warnings if they are needed. Keep an eye on forecast updates in the coming days.

HELLO 2021: The rain and storms will be moving out of the state early during the morning hours Friday with drier air returning to the state. Expect a mainly sunny sky with cooler conditions, as high pressure builds in for the weekend. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, with lows in the 30s.

Have a great day!!!
Ryan