Update: Life-Threatening Severe Outbreak Later Today and Tonight

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY/TONIGHT: Concern continues to grow over the possibility of a severe weather outbreak across the Deep South later today and specifically for Alabama this afternoon, evening, and tonight.

THE SET-UP: A very dynamic storm system associated with a negatively tilted upper trough with strong wind fields will be established to the west of Alabama and head east, accompanied by a deep surface low. The surface low is causing the frontal boundary over Alabama currently to lift back north as a warm front allowing for a very warm, highly-sheared, and unstable airmass to develop across the state, allowing for widespread development of severe storms.

PLACEMENT: The SPC has extended “High Risk” (level 5/5) for severe storms today farther east into Central Alabama, including Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Clanton, and Demopolis, with a “Moderate Risk” (level 4/5) for pretty much the rest of the state. But don’t focus on specific colors or lines on the maps, the entire state of Alabama is significant threat for severe storms.

TIMING: Thunderstorms should begin developing over West Alabama during the early afternoon hours, but for much of the state, the core threat for severe weather comes later this afternoon, evening, night, and into the pre-dawn hours Thursday, and though some decrease in instability is expected with the loss of daytime heating this evening and tonight, this is expected to be offset by the substantial strengthening of the low-level southerlies, which will increase low-level and deep-layer shear across the central Gulf Coast region. As such, risk for additional/significant tornadoes is anticipated to last through the overnight hours, focused particularly across much of Alabama.

THREATS: The atmosphere will be quite volatile over Alabama and all types of severe weather will be possible as storms will have the potential to bring large hail (up to tennis ball size), damaging winds (up to 80 mph), and tornadoes. Some strong/violent (EF2+), long-track tornadoes are expected across the Deep South considering the atmospheric setup.

RAINFALL: Widespread flash flooding is not expected, but many locations could receive 1-2 inches of rain.

CALL TO ACTION: Get ready now and be prepared by making sure all aspects of your weather safety plan are ready to go as the threat for severe storms moves into Alabama. You have got to have multiple, reliable ways to receive severe weather notifications, especially since this event will continue into the overnight hours.

Be sure WEA (Wireless Emergency Alerts) are enabled on your phone. Look under notifications. Tornado warnings, flash flood warnings, and amber alerts are pushed to your phone via WEA, and it doesn’t involve an app. We recommend the Alabama News Network Weather App for your phone also to push alerts.

You can select the warnings you receive, and it works well and is very reliable. Also, a NOAA Wether Radio should be a part of every home, and the most popular NOAA Weather radio is the Midland WR-120. You can find it at most big box retailers, and online sellers like Amazon. NEVER rely on an outdoor siren. NEVER.

Know your safe place. In a site built home, it is a small room, on the lowest floor, near the center of the house, away from windows. And, in that safe place, have helmets for everyone (this means adults too!). We also recommend a portable airhorn for everyone (to alert first responders if you need help), and hard soled shoes in case you have to walk over a tornado debris field.

You can’t stay in a mobile home during a tornado warning. Know where you are going, and how to get there quickly. If there is no community shelter nearby, go to a business like a gas station, convenience store, or restaurant that is open 24/7.

Be sure you can find your home on a map. Identify the county you are in, and the ones surrounding you. Map skill is very important on severe weather days!

Please help us by spreading the word about this serious threat. Many folks don’t pay close attention to the weather…tell your relatives, friends, and neighbors and help us get them ready. We don’t share this to scare anyone…we simply have a responsibility to let you know the danger.

For those with a weather phobia, or high anxiety, understand even on a big severe weather day odds of any one home being hit by a tornado are still very low. Just be sure you can hear warnings, have a good plan, and we will get through the day together.

STORMS END THURSDAY: The rain and storms will end early in the day Thursday, but it looks like clouds will linger much of the day and a few showers are possible as the upper-level trough swings through the state Thursday afternoon.The high Thursday will be in the low 70s, but Friday will be cooler with a high in the lower and mid 60s.

FIRST WEEKEND OF SPRING: Spring officially arrives this Saturday morning as the vernal equinox occurs at 4:37 AM CDT. The weather this weekend will be quiet and cooler as Saturday will be partly sunny with highs in the low 60s. Expect a mostly sunny sky Sunday with in the mid and upper 60s. Lows both morning will be around 40°.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will be dry with highs in the upper 60s. We could see a few showers late Tuesday, but another round of widespread rain and storms looks likely by next Wednesday or Thursday.

Please, please, please, stay weather aware the next 24 hours!!!
Ryan