Ida Expected to be a Major Hurricane at Landfall

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY: Temperatures will remain hot with highs in the low 90s and each day we will continue to see some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Again, many locations will stay dry, while many others will see rain. It comes down to watching radar trends during the afternoon and evening hours. Also, as we see each day, any storm activity will pack a punch with lots of lightning, gusty winds, and torrential rainfall; isolated areas of wind damage and flash flooding are possible. Sunday, rain chances will be increasing as Ida approached the Gulf Coast.

TROPICAL STORM IDA: The center of Tropical Storm Ida was located by weather radar on Grand Cayman near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 81.4 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph and this general motion should continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move away from the Cayman Islands this morning, pass near or over the Isle of Youth and western Cuba later today, and over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday. The system is forecast to approach the U.S. northern Gulf coast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts, and additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next few days. Ida is forecast to become a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two, and to be at or near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). Grand Cayman Island recently reported a pressure of 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

After the earlier wobbling, Ida seems to have resumed a northwestward motion. A mid-level ridge centered off the southeast U.S. coast is expected to shift westward through the weekend. This feature should keep Ida moving on a general northwestward track for the next 2 or 3 days, taking the core of the system over western Cuba this afternoon or evening and then across the southern and central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Although some model timing differences remain, they are in fairly good agreement that Ida will make landfall in Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the east of the previous forecast through 48 h based on the initial location. However, the 60 and 72 h positions are similar to the previous forecast, and thus there is no significant change to the forecast landfall area in Louisiana at this time.

There continues to be some southwesterly shear affecting Ida due to the storm’s location between an upper-level trough to the west and an upper-level anticyclone to the east. Some decrease in the shear is expected during the next 24 h, and that, combined with a moist environment and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, should allow steady to rapid strengthening until the system makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast. The new intensity forecast is slightly stronger than the previous forecast, and it now calls for Ida to reach a peak intensity of 100 kt before landfall. After landfall, Ida should weaken as it moves through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee River valleys. Based on the available guidance, there remains higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will approach and impact the Gulf coast during the weekend and early next week.

NEXT WEEK: With current forecast data, with Ida making landfall west of Alabama, our rain chances will be much higher, especially Monday and Tuesday as Alabama will be on the east side, “wet side” of the system. We should also mention Alabama will be in favorable position for some tornado potential Monday and Tuesday, but once again it is simply to early to know the magnitude of the threat. Rain becomes more scattered over the latter half of the week as the tropical system lifts out; highs during the week will be in the 80s and 90s next week.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: Two other areas of concern that could become Julian and Kate, but good news, neither will be a threat to land.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic about 650 miles east of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only forecast to be marginally conducive for development, but a tropical depression could still form over the weekend. The system is expected to move slowly eastward during the next day or two, but a faster northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before it moves into an environment of stronger upper-level winds and slightly cooler waters. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward for another day or so and then turn northward over the weekend. Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

Have an amazing Friday and pay attention to updated forecast through the weekend!!!
Ryan