Warm Tuesday, Significant Severe Risk Late Wednesday
Tuesday morning started not-so-sunny for many locations. However, a low cloud deck gradually eroded through midday. The rest of the day features sunshine and some clouds. Tuesday trends even warmer, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Temperatures only fall into the low 60s Tuesday night while clouds increase. Wednesday features variable cloudiness, though we likely see sunshine at some point in the day.
Most of Wednesday looks rain-free. However, prior to the arrival of storms Wednesday evening, winds become sustained at 15 to 25 mph. Wind gusts could be much higher, between 40 and 50 mph outside of any storms. Storms may not arrive in west Alabama until after sunset. It looks like our primary severe risk comes from a large complex of storms racing east across the lower Mississippi River Valley during the day.
However, discrete storms could develop in advance of the main line. If that happens, they could become tornadic. However, it looks like damaging straight-line winds are the main severe risk Wednesday night. In fact, damaging wind gusts could be widespread as the main storm system moves through. Straight-line wind speeds could reach 80 mph. The severe weather window open around 6PM in west Alabama, and remains open for southeast Alabama through 6AM.
Storms exit southeast Alabama around sunrise Thursday. It looks like clouds clear fairly quickly Thursday morning. The afternoon could be quite sunny, with temperatures in the 70s. Thursday night lows range from the 40s to low and mid 50s. Friday looks rain-free with some sunshine. Temperatures warm into the 70s.
The weekend doesn’t look rain-free, but doesn’t look like a washout either. Saturday features a chance for showers, though models don’t show a particularly widespread rain. It appears much of it tapers off late in the day, with rain-free weather for the rest of the weekend. Sunday could be a very sunny day, with highs in the upper 70s.
Next week begins dry, but next Tuesday could feature another round of rain and storms. Of course, we are in the heart of severe weather season, so this system also bears watching. At this time, it is far too early to tell with any shred of certainty whether or not those storms could be severe. Of course, we will keep an eye on it in case that potential arises.
