Hot and Mainly Dry Days Ahead

REST OF WEEK: Drier air is settling in behind the boundary that moved through overnight; today and tomorrow will be hot with abundant sunshine. Highs these days will be in the mid 90s. There could be an isolated storm across South Alabama this afternoon, but rain chances are generally under 10% these two days. Moisture levels begin to increase some Friday and we will bring back the chance for some scattered showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND: For the long holiday weekend, we are forecasting partly sunny days, fair nights, with scattered showers and storms storms each day. Of course, no way of knowing in advance exactly when and where they form in advance. The chance of any one spot getting wet daily is 60-70%, and most of the showers will come in the noon to midnight window. No weekend washout, but definitely have some indoor plans at times as you are likely to be dodging rain at some point. Afternoon highs Saturday through Monday will be in the mid to upper 80s, very close to seasonal averages.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Auburn begins their season Saturday evening; they host Mercer at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6:00p CT kickoff). A shower or storm can’t be ruled out during the first half, otherwise the sky will be mostly cloudy. About 85 at kickoff, upper 70s by the final whistle.

Alabama also plays Saturday evening; they will host Utah State at Bryant Denny Stadium (6:30p CT kickoff). A passing shower or storm is possible during the first half, otherwise it will be a warm, humid night with temperatures falling from the mid 80s at kickoff into the upper 70s by the end of the game.

NEXT WEEK: We will keep a persistence forecast going for the rest of the week with partly sunny days and scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Friday. Highs will remain mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

IN THE TROPICS: Three areas the NHC is monitoring, but none are a threat to the US at this time, and no threat to the Gulf of Mexico. Next three names up are Danielle, Earl, and Fiona.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has continued to increase and become more concentrated overnight. However, recent satellite wind data indicate that the circulation remains elongated and lacks a well-defined center. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, additional gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

Next, a broad area of low pressure located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development is possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days. By late this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development. Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Thursday. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Also, an area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or so along a decaying frontal zone over the central subtropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form later this week while the
system drifts generally eastward. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Stay cool today!!!
Ryan