Noon Update: Mugginess Abounds, and Some Weekend Tropical Mischief

RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST: Little change in the day to day forecast this time of year. The only real difference will come whether or not you get rain at your location, and the exact time it occurs. For the rest of this week, it will be fairly routine late May weather as the air mass will not be changing. Expect partly sunny, very warm and muggy days with scattered showers and storms on a daily basis, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, but some showers and storms are possible during the morning and late night hours. Highs will be generally in the mid to upper 80s, while lows in the upper 60s.

Within this air mass, the rain and storms that develop will be random and scattered in nature and there is no way of knowing exactly when and where they will develop. Heavier storms will also produce gusty winds; they have the potential for a “wet microburst” in a few spots…stronger straight line winds that can take down a few trees. But the main threat with summer storms is the lightning output; if you can hear thunder you can be struck by lightning, so WHEN THUNDER ROARS, HEAD INDOORS.

Additionally, tropical downpours accompany storms this time of year, and these can produce tremendous amounts of rain over a short period of time. They can and will produce isolated flash flooding problems if they sit over the same area for very long. Always remember to TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN, if you encounter flood waters.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WEATHER: The overall weather just won’t change much. Some sun, and at least scattered showers and storms Saturday through Monday. It sure looks like high precipitable water values will remain over Alabama through the weekend. Understand this is not a situation where it just rains all day, but from time to time you will deal with a passing shower or storm each day Saturday through Monday. The sun will be out at times, and highs will remain in the 80s.

TROPICAL MISCHIEF?: We will keep an eye on the Gulf of Mexico where global models continue to suggest some potential for a tropical low; nothing too unusual as we are almost to the start of hurricane season.

The latest discussion from the National Hurricane Center…A broad surface low pressure area has formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east of the coast of Belize. This low and an upper-level trough are producing widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula. While environmental conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development during the next couple of days, some gradual subtropical or tropical development is possible later this week while the system moves lowly northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across western Cuba and much of Florida during the next several days. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

ROUNDING OUT MAY: For the last few days of May next week, nothing to suggest the weather changes much. A broad upper trough remains over the region along with moist air, meaning scattered showers and storms will be around each day with highs in the 80s.

Have a great day!
Ryan