Once More Nice Day Before Strong Storms Tomorrow

HAPPY HALLOWEEN: For today, the sky will be mainly sunny, and the day will be warm with a high in the lower 80s. Moisture levels will begin to rise, and we will mention some risk of widely scattered showers during the afternoon and evening hours mainly for portions of West Alabama. For the trick or treaters, the rain won’t be widespread, but a shower can’t be ruled out, once again over extreme West Alabama.

STORMY START TO NOVEMBER: All eyes are on Thursday as a dynamic weather system will bring widespread rain and thunderstorms to Alabama. Some of the storms could be severe, especially over the southern half of the state and the SPC has defined the standard “slight risk” (level 2/5) of severe storms for areas along and south of the U.S. 80 corridor from Demopolis to Selma to Eufala, with a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for area north of there.

With this system, the highest instability values look be to over South Alabama, while the better shear values remain over the northern counties of the state. Not exactly lined up, but nevertheless, there is clearly going to be a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms based on the forecast wind fields and lift, mainly where there is surface based instability involved.

The overall risk of severe storms for the northern half of Alabama is low, but heavier thunderstorms could produce gusty winds and some small hail. For southern portions of Alabama, where the higher instability will be, storms will be capable of producing damaging winds, some hail, and a few isolated tornadoes. Rain amounts look to be 1 to 2 inches pretty much statewide. The main window for storms will be from roughly 7AM in our western counties through 3PM in our eastern counties.

FRIDAY: Most of the rain should be out of here early Friday, but clouds will linger most of the day, and temperatures will be much cooler. Most communities will hold in the lower 60s all day Friday with a cool north breeze.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We are forecasting a delightful weekend ahead with sunny days and clear chilly nights. The high Saturday will be near 70°, followed by mid 70s Sunday. Both mornings will be cold with lows in the mid 40s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Great weather for the high school games across the state Friday night; look for a clearing sky with temperatures falling from the mid 50s at kickoff, into the 40s by the fourth quarter.

Auburn will host Texas A&M Saturday (11:00a CT kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium… the sky will be sunny with temperatures rising from near 62 degrees at kickoff, into the mid 60s by the second half.

Alabama is on the road to take on LSU in Baton Rouge Saturday night (7:00p CT kickoff)… it will be a perfect night for football with a clear sky and temperatures falling through the 60s.

SOME SPACECRAFT LIKE IT HOT: NASA’s Parker Solar Probe is now closer to the sun than any other spacecraft in history. The heat-resistant spacecraft broke the previous record yesterday when it hurtled across the orbit of Mercury faster than 150,000 mph. At closest approach on Nov. 5th, Parker’s cameras and other sensors will examine the sun like never before.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will be dry, but rain and a few thunderstorms will return Tuesday with our next storm system and cold front. Too early to tell if severe weather will be an issue, but we are getting into our secondary severe weather season so we will have to watch things carefully. Beyond Tuesday drier air looks to return for the latter half of the week.

TROPICAL UPDATE: Hurricane Oscar continues to move northeast through the Atlantic and is no threat to land. The rest of the basin is quiet with no development expected through the week ahead.

Have a Happy Halloween!
Ryan