Dry Wednesday, Rain & Storms Return Tomorrow

We will stay dry today though the sky will feature more clouds than sun. Highs today will be very mild with mid and upper 70s throughout South/Central Alabama.

ACROSS THE USA: A storm system will rapidly intensify over the Plains on Wednesday. Blizzard conditions are expected from the Front Range across the central and northern Plains. Travel will be dangerous, if not impossible. Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, large hail, heavy rainfall, and a few tornadoes can be expected into Wednesday from the southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley.

RAIN AND STRONG STORMS RETURN: As this system moves into the Midwest, a trailing cold front will approach Alabama Thursday and Thursday night with a band of rain and storms, and it looks like some of those storms will be strong to possibly severe for portions of the state. The SPC has issued the standard “slight risk” (level 2/5) for severe storms for areas west of a line from Huntsville to Cullman to Tuscaloosa, and a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) as far east as Gadsden to Clanton to Selma down to near Mobile. Within these risk areas, all modes of severe weather will be possible, and these threats include isolated tornadoes, damaging winds and some hail.

It still looks like the greatest dynamics and upper support with this system will be well to the north of the state, but this is a very powerful system and its affects will be far-reaching, and for Alabama there is enough of a threat that we will have to watch things carefully. This remains a conditional threat as instability values are not forecast to be particularly high and there is a chance we have a rain ongoing through the day Thursday. This would keep the air stable and lessen the chance of severe storms later in the day.

However, if we don’t get much rain during the day, and if the sun can break out at times, instability values could be higher and the chance of severe storms would rise as well, especially for portions of North and West Alabama. For now, the main window for the chance of these storms for South/Central Alabama will come from 4PM Thursday through 4AM Friday, but the good news for our part of the state, is that the storms will be weakening as they push south and east.

With this system we are expecting another soaking rain as rainfall amounts Thursday into Friday look be around the one inch range for much of North/Central Alabama. The highs Thursday will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. As the front pushes through the state early Friday we should see a clearing sky and cooler temperatures as highs fall back into the 60s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: High pressures settles in across the state and brings with it a much cooler and drier air mass for the upcoming weekend. Look for a good supply of sunshine both days with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Morning lows will be chilly as we drop back down into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

INTO NEXT WEEK: The new work week starts with a fairly benign weather pattern and for much of next week, the weather looks calm and dry. We are forecasting seasonal temperatures, meaning highs generally in the upper 60s and lows in the 40s.

Have a great day!
Ryan