Sandwiched Between Approaching Front and Tropical System; Expect Rain for Central and South Alabama

IN THE GULF: A surface trough extending from the Florida Panhandle west-southwestward along the northern Gulf coast continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent land areas. The surface trough is forecast to drift northward during the next few days and significant development is unlikely due to the system’s proximity to land. Regardless of development, heavy rains will pose a risk of flash flooding along
portions of the northern Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days. Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent. The feature looks to move onshore before it really gets organized so we are not expecting it to develop, but if it were too, it would be Danielle.

If you have a trip planned to the Central Gulf Coast (Dauphin Island to Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach), it won’t rain all day every day, but it will be wet and stormy at times, with some intervals of sun. Also, rip currents are high right now, please pay attention to the flag warning systems along the beaches.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY: We have an approaching front from the north and a tropical system to the south of us, that puts most of Alabama in a “tropical sandwich” with more clouds than sun and high rain chances. Moisture levels are very high so expect limited sunshine with occasional showers and storms. High temperatures should hold in the upper 80s for most locations. Central and South should see widespread rain and storms the next few days and some locations could receive several inches of rain, and may have to deal with some strong storms as well. The SPC has defined a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for parts of Central Alabama today as a few storms could produce strong winds.

The pattern is not expected to change much in the next few days, but the forecast is subject to big changes due to the tropical system along the Gulf Coast. Hopefully, by late Friday, this feature should be moving east of us, allowing some drier air to sneak back into the state from the north.

WEEKEND & NEXT WEEK: Pretty routine summer weather with partly sunny days, fair nights, and a few showers and storms around during the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon highs not too far from 90 degrees as the core of the heat across the nation remains west of Alabama. This typical mid-July weather pattern looks to continue into next week as well. We could see the upper high begin to nose in here, meaning slightly higher heat levels with highs in the 90-95 degree range most days. And, the usual risk of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis.

Be blessed and highly favored!!!
Ryan