Hot with Scattered Strong Storms

Looks and feels like early August to me as temperatures will be warming well into the 90s this afternoon and those heat index values look to be over 100° much of the afternoon as well. Of course, we will see scattered showers and storms this afternoon across the Alabama landscape. We mentioned it yesterday and we will continue to do so today, the upper-level flow this week is from the northwest and anytime you get northwest flow aloft there is the potential for a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) or area of organized thunderstorms to develop to our northwest and move southeast towards Alabama. This happened last night and we are tracking the remnants this morning as it is likely to lay down an outflow boundary which will help initiate additional showers and storms later today. For the next couple of days, as long as the flow remains from the northwest aloft, we are going to leave the potential for more of these systems to move into the state. Also these system are known to produce severe weather, mainly in the form of damaging winds and hail and for that reason, the SPC has outlined the northern two-thirds of the state in a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for severe storms today. So yes, that means some of the storms could potentially reach severe limits later today.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A weak surface boundary will approach Alabama this weekend, but should stall just north of the area. However, with this boundary being nearby we should see an increase in the number of showers and storms these three days with the activity going from more scattered to more numerous and widespread. Still no weekend washout, but be prepared to dodge raindrops over the weekend as rain will be possible anytime, and of course, the greatest coverage in activity should come during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs this weekend will range from the upper 80s to mid 90s across North/Central Alabama.

INTO NEXT WEEK: For now, pretty routine August weather highlights the forecast for next week. We are forecasting hot and humid conditions each day with upper 80s to mid 90s, and each afternoon expect those random hit or miss showers and storms.

TROPICAL UPDATE: For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five days.

Have a great day!
Ryan