Hot, Dry Week; Active in the Tropics

HOT, DRY PATTERN: Tons of sunshine in the sky today with only fair weather cumulus clouds drifting by, it will be a hot day with highs in the lower and mid 90s. For the rest of the week, the weather should be generally dry, mainly sunny and hot with highs in the mid to perhaps upper 90s each day. Late Wednesday night and into Thursday, a weak surface front will move through the state. It should come through in dry fashion, and bring some cooler nights towards the end of the week with lows well down into the 60s.

HURRICANE DORIAN: At 500 AM EDT, the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 78.4 West. Dorian is stationary just north of Grand Bahama Island. A slow north-northwestward motion is expected to begin this morning. A turn to the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn to the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island today. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches).

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The mainly dry and hot pattern looks to continue into the weekend as it doesn’t appear there is any real significant threat for rain in the forecast. Saturday and Sunday both should feature mainly sunny conditions with highs in the mid to upper 90s.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: As expected, as we head into September, the tropics are very active as we are in the heart of the season. There are several other areas of interest the NHC is monitoring for development in the coming days:

1. Recent satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the low pressure area located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better defined. Associated thunderstorm activity has been increasing and showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure system located over the west-central Gulf of Mexico about 200 miles east-northeast of Tampico, Mexico, is showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so while the low moves slowly westward or west-southwestward toward Mexico. Interests along the northeastern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

3. A trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of the disturbance is possible during the next couple of days. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

4. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

Have a great day!
Ryan