Fantastic Fall Weather, but Tropical Troubles Ahead

A rather chilly start to our Thursday with widespread 40s this morning, but with a mainly sunny sky, temperatures will warm into the lower 70s this afternoon. Tonight, will be partly cloudy with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. For our Friday, with a tropical system in the Gulf the weather will begin to change. The day should be dry and mild with highs in the mid 70s, but clouds will be increasing through the day as moisture streams north, and we are expecting rain to return to the area Friday night.

Speaking of the tropics, we are likely to see a tropical depression or perhaps Tropical Storm Nestor in the coming days. Latest update from the National Hurricane Center: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have increased and become a little better organized during the past several hours. Recent satellite wind data also indicate that the system is producing winds to near tropical storm force. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the system moves generally northeastward over the western Gulf of Mexico.

The low is forecast to approach the northern or northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and regardless of development, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and rough surf over those areas. Heavy rainfall is also possible across portions of the Southeast U.S. late this week and this weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.

So what does this mean for us? Friday night and into the day Saturday look to feature cloudy, rainy conditions for the area. Highs will only be near 70° Saturday, and we should see a steady rain for much of the day. This feature should pull away from the area rather quickly and Sunday looks dry for most of the state; highs should be in the upper 70s to near 80°.

NEXT WEEK: With unstable air in place, an approaching dynamic system and cold front, it looks like strong, maybe even severe thunderstorms will be possible late Monday into early Tuesday. There will be some surface based instability involved, and the storms could produce strong winds as they move through the state. Behind the front, cool, dry air settles into the state for midweek. By Friday, another front should be approaching the state and could mean another round of rain and storms before next weekend starts.

Have a great day!
Ryan