One More Nice, Dry Day…Wet Pattern Ahead

It is another chilly start to the day with widespread 40s across South/Central Alabama. We are also starting the day off sunny, but we should begin to see clouds increase through the afternoon and highs will reach the lower to mid 70s. Tonight will be mainly cloudy and we should begin to see scattered showers across the area after midnight; lows will be in the lower 60s for most spots.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Rain returns to Alabama tomorrow, and we should see periods of rain, and it could be heavy at times especially for western portions of the state, through the day and likely lasting into Friday night as an upper trough approaches from the west. No severe weather worries tomorrow, and probably little to no thunder as the air will be rather stable, but many locations should see a soaking rain, especially for areas of West and North Alabama. The high tomorrow will hold in the upper 60s to lower 70s all day.

The rain looks to continue into Saturday as a surface low lifts north west of the area, this could cause a warm front to lift northward across the state. This could allow of instability values to increase across the state ahead of an approaching cold front and we may have to deal with some thunderstorms on Saturday as the front swings into the state, so we will mention that in the forecast, and we will have to watch for the possibility of some strong storms as well, but severe weather is not expected. The front looks to push down into southern portions of the state and stall as it loses its upper-level support. Sunday should be mainly cloudy with scattered showers; highs will be in the 70s over the weekend.

Rain amounts between tomorrow morning and Sunday night will be very wide ranging across the state, with portions of East Alabama only getting 0.5″, while some locations across West and North Alabama could easily see 3-4 inches, with perhaps some isolated higher amounts… a very beneficial rain event.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games Friday night, the sky will be cloudy with rain likely; temperatures will be in the low 60s.

For Saturday’s Magic City Classic at Legion Field in Birmingham (Alabama State vs Alabama A&M, 2:30p CT kickoff), the sky will be cloudy, and periods of rain are likely. A thunderstorm can’t be ruled out. Kickoff temperature near 70 degrees, falling into the upper 60s by the final whistle.

Auburn travels to Baton Rouge Saturday to take on LSU (2:30p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly cloudy, and a few passing showers are possible during the game. Temperatures will fall from the upper 60s at kickoff into the mid 60s by the fourth quarter.

It is homecoming at the University of Alabama Saturday; the Tide will host Arkansas at Bryant-Denny Stadium (6:00p CT kickoff). It looks like rain will fall at times during the game, with a thunderstorm possible as well. Temperatures will fall from near 70 at kickoff, into the upper 60s by the second half.

INTO NEXT WEEK: For the first part of next week with a stalled front nearby, we will need to continue to mention more clouds than sun, with scattered showers possible Monday through Wednesday. By late Wednesday, a strong cold front looks to dive south into Alabama, bringing the chance for the possibility of stronger storms, also will likely bring coldest air so far this season to Alabama by Thursday and Friday. The long range guidance suggests the potential for the first widespread frost of the season for portions of North and Central Alabama by Thursday or Friday mornings. The days will be sunny and cool with highs in the 60s. In case you were wondering, the average date for the first freeze in Montgomery is November 18th, while the earliest on record was October 20th, 1989.

IN THE TROPICS: We are still in hurricane season, but we are getting late in the season when things really begin to calm down, but still the season continues through November 30th. There is one area of interest:

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly over southern Mexico and the Bay of Campeche. Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves generally northwestward and then northward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is then forecast to merge with a cold front over the weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent. Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

In case you were wondering the next name on the list is Olga.

Have a mystical day of adventures!
Ryan