Very Mild Monday; Severe Storms POSSIBLE Overnight
STRONG STORMS TONIGHT: Not much change in the forecast as we are still expecting rain and storms returning to Alabama and some of those storms could be on the strong to severe side overnight. The SPC maintains most of Alabama in a “Slight Risk” (level 2/5) for severe weather, while an “Enhanced Risk” (level 3/5) is up for much of Mississippi and extreme West Alabama; the remainder of the state is in a “Marginal Risk” (level 1/5). This will be for late this afternoon and overnight.
For today, the low-level jet increases ahead of the system, and this will cause warm air advection from the south, which will allow temperatures to climb into the 70s, while dew points surge well into the 60s, which will mean an unstable air mass will be in place over Alabama. Add in increasing dynamics of shear and helicity, along with the added lift of the front, and all the ingredients are coming together for strong storms to develop in Alabama. All modes of severe weather are possible: which includes tornadoes, damaging winds up to 70 MPH, and hail up to 1-inch in diameter. Still at this point, the timing for strong to severe storms to impact Alabama will come from 6PM this evening through 6AM tomorrow morning. There will be changes in timing and threats so stay tuned for updated forecasts the next 24 hours.
ALABAMA NEWS NETWORK WEATHER AUTHORITY RESOURCES:
REVIEW YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLAN: It’s time to dust off that severe weather safety plan and make sure your family and business or organization is ready for the possibility of severe weather during the middle of the night. Test those Weather Radios, and make sure you have multiple, reliable ways to receive severe weather notifications, if and when warnings are issued.
QUIET, COLDER MIDWEEK: The storm threat ends early Tuesday, and much colder air moves into the state behind the front as a strong area of high pressure delivers, colder and drier air into the state for the middle part of the week. Tuesday will feature a gradually clearing sky with falling temperatures from the 60s early in the day to 40s by tomorrow afternoon. Wednesday and Thursday will feature generally sunny days, chilly afternoons with highs in the 50s; lows both mornings will be around freezing.
SPOTTY SHOWERS RETURN: By Friday, the high pressure begins to slide east of the area which will begin to allow moisture levels to rise and clouds to return to the area with highs in the upper 50s. The day looks to remain generally dry, but rain is expected to return Friday night and into Saturday. For Saturday, we stay cloudy with scattered showers as an upper-low works across the state. We should see improving weather on Sunday with more sun than cloud with highs in the 60s.
Have a blessed Monday and stay weather aware tonight!!!
Ryan
