Rain at Times this Week; Strong Storms Possible Late Wednesday Night

A front moves into Alabama today then stalls across northern portions of the state meaning rain and storms are in the forecast each day today through Thursday. Now it won’t rain all the time, but waves of low pressure will move up and along the front, and these will enhance rain chances as they move across the state. Expect some thunderstorms, and a few stronger storms are possible late this morning and afternoon and the SPC has issued at least a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for severe storms across West/Central Alabama. The main concern with stronger storms in these areas would be isolated damaging gusts.

For Tuesday, there is currently no part of Alabama highlighted in a threat for severe storms, which of course could change. However, Wednesday that is a different story as the SPC has all of Alabama in a risk of severe storms, with most if the state at least in the level 2/5, “slight risk”.

For now, it looks like a line of strong to severe storms forms to our west and then will move through Alabama during the late-night hours on Wednesday night and continuing through the pre-dawn hours on Thursday morning. We’ll have unstable air over the area, and combining that with strong shear, there is the potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes. There remains a lot of uncertainty with this event, so we will be fine-tuning the forecast the next couple of days, but go head and be prepared for the potential of severe storms overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

The main concern this week for Alabama will be a serious flooding threat for northern portions of the state. With recent rains and a lot more rain in the forecast, the threat for flooding will be a serious concern for much of the week. For the week ahead, Monday and Thursday, QPF output for rainfall across North Alabama is in the 3 to 8 inch range, with of course isolated higher amounts. With periods of heavy rainfall expected and saturated grounds, it will not take much to see flooding issues develop at any time this week. So be prepared to deal with these issues this week, and just a reminder if you encounter any floodwaters, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!!! For southern portions of the state, rainfall amounts at the time look to be less than one inch.

Additionally, rivers and stream are already running full, with many near or in flood stage, and with the additional rainfall expected, we look to be dealing with a prolonged river flood event across the state. Just something to keep an eye on the next couple of weeks.

DRIER FRIDAY: By Friday, another front sweeps through the state, and will finally push the stalled front to our east, which would allow for drier conditions to return to Alabama Friday, which should give us a chance to dry out. However, this looks to be short-lived, as the models hint at more heavy rain for next weekend at some point. Friday will be cooler with highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Have a great day!
Ryan