Some Strong Afternoon Storms Possible

STORM THREAT TODAY: Highs will be in the 80s today with more clouds than sun and scattered showers possible at anytime. As we roll into the afternoon hours, we are going to see plenty of instability in place, and this will allow for thunderstorms to develop across Central Alabama and these should become strong and perhaps severe with gusty winds and large hail a concern. For this reason, most of Central Alabama is under a level 2/5 “slight risk” for severe weather.

Additionally, to the north of Alabama today, a strong cold front will cause severe weather across the Tennessee Valley later today, and these storms could move down into Alabama later tonight. This threat will come late tonight, after midnight and into the early morning hours tomorrow, but these storms should be weakening as they move into Central Alabama. The main threats will come from hail and strong straight line winds; the tornado threat is very low, but not zero.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY: The rain and storm threat will by midday tomorrow and a drier, cooler air mass will settle into Alabama. Thursday should feature a clearing sky through the afternoon with in the low 80s. Thursday night will be cooler with lows in the lower 50s. For Friday, expect a sunny and cooler day with high around 70°. Friday night should be our coldest night with a mainly clear sky, lows will fall into the 40s across South/Central Alabama. Saturday will be dry with increasing clouds through the afternoon, expect highs in the mid 70s.

EASTER SUNDAY STORM THREAT: Forecast confidence is growing now that we are getting better model agreement for the weekend, and it looks like we are going to have an active weather day Easter Sunday as an upper-low ejects out of the Desert Southwest and moves east bringing with it the potential for both strong thunderstorms and heavy rain. This could very well be a day with a risk of severe thunderstorms as well, and the SPC is already highlighting much of the Northern Gulf Coast under a severe weather risk on Sunday in their “Day 5 Convective Outlook.”

The synoptic “large scale” features suggest we will have severe weather, but we will have to wait and see how the mesoscale “small features” line up in the coming days and how that could impact the potential threats. For now, expect a wet and stormy day, with at least some potential for severe storms, very mild with temps in the upper 70s, and the potential for rain amounts of 1-2 inches.

ANOTHER LATE SEASON COOL SNAP: Behind the Sunday system, and ridge of high pressure will build in across Alabama, ending the rain and storm threat for several days, but also bring a much cooler air mass into the state for the first half of next week. Monday and Wednesday should feature plenty of sunshine, with highs in the 70s and lows down in the 40s.

Stay weather aware today and keep social distancing…both could save your life!!!
Ryan