Severe Storms Likely Sunday
A cold front pushed through our area this morning. Showers and eventually clouds departed the area as it moved to our south. Winds turned to the northwest behind the front, bringing in slightly cooler air across our northern communities. Many locations still warmed into the 70s and even 80s this afternoon, however. Expect one more calm evening, with temperatures falling from the low 70s at 7PM into the 60s through 9PM. Overnight lows fall into the upper 50s to low 60s.
Severe storms appear likely in our area again on Sunday. The storm prediction center upgraded part of our area to a moderate (level 4/5) risk Saturday afternoon. The rest of our area is placed in an enhanced (level 3/5) risk for severe weather. Tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, and hail are all potential threats. It looks like there will be a couple rounds of severe weather, one during the morning, then the main event during the afternoon/evening.
The first round impacts our area during the morning between about 4AM and 11AM. These storms form well north of an eventually north-lifting front. With no surface instability in place yet, these storms won’t have a tornado threat. However, they could produce damaging winds and hail. The main event arrives later in the day, after the warm front lifts north of our area, between about 2PM and 2AM. South of the front, warm and unstable air allows storms forming or entering our area from the west to become severe. Tornadoes are a threat with any storms during the afternoon and evening. Models currently show the late afternoon/evening activity as a cluster of storms racing east into Alabama from Louisiana/Mississippi earlier in the day.
There’s also a chance for isolated storms to form in our area during the afternoon, after the warm front lifts to our north. That would be ahead of the main complex of storms and within the second round of severe weather. Any isolated storms that form and become severe will be capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.
Heavy rain could also lead to flash flooding. A flash flood watch is in effect for most of our area between 7AM Sunday and 1AM Monday. Area rain totals of 2-4″ with locally higher amounts are expected.
Storms continue through our area Sunday night, likely exiting east Alabama sometime after midnight. The storms, and any associated severe threat, should be over by sunrise Monday. There could be some showers around Monday, but Tuesday looks dry. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70s with lows in the 50s both days. Another storm system impacts our area late Wednesday and Thursday. This system could produce severe weather in our area too, so we will watch it closely. However, this far out, it’s really too early to tell.
Otherwise, expect a warm-up for the middle and end of next week, with highs temperatures reaching the 80s each day. Another cold front could approach from the northwest next weekend. However, models don’t show much moisture return ahead of the front. That means we may not get much rain out of the front, but instead mainly a surge of cooler and drier air.
That system is still way down the road though, and the main focus on the forecast should be Sunday’s likely round of severe storms. Be weather aware, and be sure to stay up-to-date on the still-evolving forecast. We’ll keep you up-to-date with the latest information.
