Hit or Miss Storms; Watching Cristobal

REST OF WEEK: Today through Friday, each day will feature more randomly scattered, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms; nothing widespread, but there will be pockets of rain and storms across the Alabama landscape on a daily basis. Rain chances will range from 30-50 percent each day. The sky will be partly sunny with highs mostly in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

ALL EYES ON CRISTOBAL: Tropical Storm Cristobal is in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. At 400 AM CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located by radar data from Mexico near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 92.0 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near 3 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue this morning, followed by turn toward the east this afternoon. A motion toward the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will cross the southern Bay of Campeche coast later today and move inland over eastern Mexico tonight and Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over the Bay of Campeche Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Some slight increase in strength is possible until the center crosses the coast. Gradual weakening is forecast while the center remains inland, but restrengthening is expected after Cristobal moves back over water Thursday night and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 994 mb (29.35 inches).

THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST: While the direct impact from Cristobal is likely to be west of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, the Central Gulf Coast will remain on the wet, east side of the system with an onshore flow. Deep tropical moisture will be pulled into the region, leading to higher rain chances by the end of this week and the weekend ahead. The rain could be heavy at times. For now, we are not expecting any dangerous weather in terms of wind, but rip currents will likely be high and quite dangerous over the weekend.

WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK: For Saturday we will roll with a persistence forecast. Partly sunny, very warm and humid, with random, scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers/storms. No way of knowing in advance exactly when and where the showers and thunderstorms will form; you just have to watch radar trends each day. Highs will be in 87-90 degree range. For Sunday and into early next week, the forecast will remain contingent on Cristobal…We will be on the east side of the system, which is the wet side…so for now, we are forecasting warm and very muggy with more clouds than sun and higher rain chances. Again, a lot can and will change with the system in the Gulf and we will have a better idea of where Cristobal is heading and its potential impacts later this week…We will mention we could see a tornado threat develop Sunday through Tuesday across the region as those feeder bands on the east side of the storm can are known to produce short-lived tornadoes…Stay tuned for forecast updates.

Keep social distancing!!!
Ryan