Rain and Storms Likely the Next Few Days

TODAY-THURSDAY: Deep, tropical moisture with high precipitable water values cover Alabama this week, setting the stage for rather unsettled weather conditions. In addition, the upper ridge in place weakens allowing for a broad upper trough will develop over the region. With the somewhat colder air aloft and better uplift due to the trough, we will forecast numerous showers and thunderstorms today through Thursday. While most of them will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t rule out some rain during the late night and morning hours as well. The sky will feature more clouds than sun, and highs will be only in the upper 80s.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Moisture levels look to be decreasing somewhat for your Friday and so do the chances of rain and thunderstorms, but still expect those scattered showers and storms. Then for Saturday and Sunday, expect generally sunny mornings, but then by the afternoon hours, we will have showers and thunderstorms around both days. Highs will be in the 88-93 degree range.

INTO NEXT WEEK: Rolling into August, the overall pattern doesn’t change much, so the forecast will not change much either through next week. Partly sunny days with scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. No sign of any excessive heat issues for the state; highs will remain in the upper 80s to mid-90s.

IN THE TROPICS: Invest 92L, in the Atlantic still well east of the Lesser Antilles, is expected to become “Isaias” a some point in the days ahead. Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located about 750 miles east of the Windward Islands is gradually increasing in organization. However, recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the circulation remains broad and elongated, and the low does not yet have a well-defined center of circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and approaches the
Leeward Islands.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands on Wednesday and will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests on these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today. Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent. Using ensemble output from global models, this will likely pass near, or just north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, From there it is simply too early to know the ultimate track and intensity of the system.

Stay safe and bless people!!!
Ryan