Hot, Mainly Dry Tuesday; Watching the Tropics

MAINLY DRY, HOT TUESDAY: A relatively dry air mass for August in Alabama is over the state today, meaning showers and storms are few and far between across much of the state today. A few showers and storms are expected across Southeast Alabama, but for most of us today, we should remain dry as rain chances are only 10-20 percent. Look for mostly sunny sky highs in the mid to upper 90s this afternoon.

IN THE TROPICS: We may be saying hello to Laura and Marco later this week as the NHC is monitoring two potent tropical waves in the Atlantic.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. This disturbance is moving westward at about 20 mph, and is forecast to continue to move quickly westward over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, which is likely to limit significant development. After that time, however, the system is forecast to move more slowly westward across the western Caribbean, where upper-level winds could become more conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the latter part of this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands this morning. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…60 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure located a little over 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms displaced to the west of an elongated surface circulation. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

SECOND HALF OF WEEK: Moisture levels will begin to rise tomorrow and the rest of the week, and we will bring the chance of those random, scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast tomorrow through Friday. Rain chances will be in the 40-60 percent range, with the greatest coverage of activity between 1PM and 9PM. The sky will be partly sunny each day with highs in the low 90s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Not much change; we expect a mix of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. Highs will continue to be right around the 90 degree mark both days.

NEXT WEEK: We will go with a summer persistence forecast, but there is a chance a tropical system will be involved. It is simply too early to know if it will bring any enhanced risk of rain to Alabama, or provide a drier pattern. Highs will be in the low 90s most days, close to seasonal averages.

Stay cool and safe!!!
Ryan