Rain/Strong Storms Possible Today; Tropical Depression 13 Develops

Moisture levels are high today, and we will see widespread and numerous showers and storms today and tomorrow. Rain chances are in 70-80 percent range, and most places will see 1/2 to 1 inch of rain between today and tomorrow, but again, not everyone will see that much, while other locations could receive a lot more. The sky will be partly sunny both days with highs in the upper 80s due to the clouds and rain.

Also, we note the SPC has all of Alabama under a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for severe storms today as some storms this afternoon and evening good produce damaging wind gusts and hail. Besides the wind and hail threat, all storms will of course produce intense, tropical downpours, and of course frequent lightning.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN: At 500 AM AST, the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 49.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). This will receive the name Laura.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS: Watching and waiting on Marco and Nana.

INVEST 97L: This tropical wave located is over the central Caribbean Sea, it is accompanying a broad area of low pressure producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple of days when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is moving westward, and interests in Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor its progress. Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce heavy rains across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico late this week and this weekend. Formation chance…high…80 percent.

And, a tropical wave over western Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to move over the far eastern tropical Atlantic on Friday, and some slow development is possible through the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We expect a mix of sun and clouds Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms both days, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. Rain chances are expected to be around 40% both days as well with highs around 90° each afternoon.

NEXT WEEK: Our weather will all depend on whether we could be dealing with those potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico, and right now there is no way of knowing exactly how that scenario plays out. So, for now, we will roll with a summer persistence forecast through the weekend… partly sunny days with “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. Highs in the lower 90s. But again, this forecast will probably change a good bit in coming days.

Be safe and be blessed!!!
Ryan